Contemporary progress in geological heritage (geoheritage) studies in deserts has allowed the identification of a new resource for sustainable development in oases. The field investigations and the bibliographical survey enable the identification of geoheritage-rich areas (GRA) in the Western Desert of Egypt and beyond. These GRAs reflect natural concentrations of peculiar geological and geomorphological features. Eight oasis-centered GRAs are outlined in the Western Desert of Egypt (Bahariya, Dakhla, Dungul, Faiyum, Farafra, Kharga, Kurkur, Siwa), and several GRAs of the same kind are found in North Africa (beyond Egypt), the Middle East, and western South America. The Egyptian GRAs often represented sedimentary, paleogeographical, and geomorphological features. It is established that these GRAs differ in geoheritage exploration and content, and the most comprehensive data are available for four oases of the Western Desert of Egypt (Bahariya, Farafra, Faiyum, and Siwa) and the Hingol area of Pakistan. It is argued that various sustainability aspects matter for the considered oases of the Western Desert of Egypt and can be linked to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Utilization of geoheritage resources can contribute to the sustainability of desert oases. It is also suggested that geoheritage studies in the oases of the Western Desert of Egypt can serve as a model for similar research in other desert domains of the world.

The Himalayan region’s traditional fodder systems are under increasing strain from socioeconomic shifts and environmental change. This study examines the changing dynamics of fodder availability and livestock management in Chamoli district, Uttarakhand (India). The study was conducted in five blocks of the district (Joshimath, Pokhari, Karnaprayag, Tharali, and Dewal). These covered different elevation zones: lower (800–1,500 m), middle (1,500–2,500 m), and higher (>2,500 m). The research employed household surveys (n=150) to examine trends in traditional fodder resources, adaptation strategies, and associated challenges. Findings reveal a 37% decline in overall fodder availability since 1990, with the highest reduction (45%) in higher regions due to climate change and decreasing snowfall. Mid-altitude areas experienced a 38% decline, largely due to restricted forest access and invasive species. The lower zones reported a 29% decrease, which was driven by agricultural expansion and deforestation. The study highlights a 105% increase in fodder collection (from 2.1 to 4.3 hours daily) as well as a doubling of collection distances (from 1.8 to 3.6 km) over three decades. Periods of acute shortage extended from 2.3 to 4.7 months annually. This increase disproportionately impacts women’s workloads. Households have responded by adopting alternative strategies, including commercial feed (63% adoption), increased reliance on crop residues (88%), and herd reduction (97%). Household income, market access, and education significantly influence adaptation capacity. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions, such as improved fodder cultivation, integrated fodder development programs, enhanced forest management policies, and economic support for dependent populations. This research contributes to understanding social-ecological transitions in mountain systems.

Landslides on Mount Marapi, West Sumatra, Indonesia, pose significant threats to human life, infrastructure, and the surrounding environment. This study examines patterns of surface deformation and predicts landslide susceptibility on Mount Marapi by integrating Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms with a multi-model machinelearning framework. Landslide susceptibility prediction was conducted using K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gradient Boosting (GB) algorithms. Integration of InSAR-derived deformation data with geospatial variables and machine learning facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of deformation dynamics and landslide susceptibility. The findings reveal a dominant trend of subsidence accompanied by persistent fluctuations along the mountain slopes, largely driven by recurrent landslides across multiple locations, thereby reshaping the surface morphology. InSAR data provide a spatially continuous representation of deformation within landslide-prone zones. Among the evaluated algorithms, RF demonstrated the highest predictive performance, yielding an accuracy of 94.33% and a precision of 91.30%. Key variables such as slope gradient, elevation, and rainfall emerged as the most influential determinants of landslide susceptibility. Additionally, seismic activity along the subduction zone and tectonic earthquakes act as further triggers, intensifying landslide occurrence in conjunction with extreme rainfall events. Although secondary factors such as curvature, soil type, and localized deformation exert relatively weaker influences, their interactions remain important in constructing a holistic landslide prediction framework. Overall, this study highlights the effectiveness of integrating InSAR with machine learning to advance multivariable approaches for forecasting and mitigating landslide hazards on Mount Marapi.

Studies of changes in the chemical composition of lake water due to climate variability and human impact are highly relevant for Karelia, which has more than 60,000 lakes. Lake Vendyurskoe, a typical small lake in Karelia, has been used for growing rainbow trout since 2009. In the 1970–90s, drainage and logging were practiced in the catchment of this lake. A change in the composition of major ions in the lake’s water and an increase in the labile component of organic matter were observed between 1971 and 2023. In 2021–2023, the concentration of sulfate ions decreased fourfold compared to 1971–1985, which may be due to both the cessation of drainage operations and a reduction in the concentration of sulfates in precipitation. Chloride ion concentrations were reduced by half. The 50-year decrease in bicarbonate concentrations was likely associated with increased precipitation. Total phosphorus concentrations in the lake water showed an upward trend over the 50 years (in both surface and bottom layers), indicating increased anthropogenic impact on the lake. During the summer stratification period, hypoxia develops in the deep-water parts of the lake and near trout cages, and phosphate concentrations in the bottom layers are quite high (up to 36 μg/L). The mobilization of phosphorus from bottom sediments under anoxic conditions creates a secondary phosphorus load, which may be the reason for the increased bioproductivity. A direct correlation was found between the duration of near-bottom hypoxia in summer and the average air temperature over the three summer months (R² = 0.51), suggesting deteriorating oxygen conditions in the lake during the open-water period as regional climate warming continues. The greatest oxygen depletion in the lake occurs in winters with early freeze-up and late ice-breaking. The inverse correlation of the duration of winter hypoxia with the November air temperature of the previous year (R² = 0.39) and the May air temperature of the current year (R² = 0.41), which influence the timing of ice formation and breakup, suggests the oxygen conditions in the lake during the winter have improved, with a shorter freeze-up period due to warming in the fall and spring. The observed changes in the water chemical composition provide reasoning for reducing the trout farming volumes.

Gunungkidul region in Indonesia, though considered arid and agriculturally limited, has shown notable productivity in food crops, especially upland rice, cassava, groundnut, and maize cultivation. Main challenges of agricultural development in this region are limited accessibility to land due to its hilly and steep topography, as well as water scarcity. Accurate land-use planning tools are needed to allocate land resources to support regional agricultural activity. Therefore, a systematic assessment of land potential for food crop agriculture is needed using geoinformation techniques to enable well-planned development. This study segmented research area into doline units as mapping units. Accessibility, soil, and water factors were employed in evaluating land potential classes. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to determine the weights of parameters and parameter classes scores for each factor. Potential of dolines for food crop agriculture in Gunungkidul was assessed using 10 parameters including distance from road, distance from settlements, area of doline’s valley, rasio of valley’s area and doline’s area, soil depth, soil texture, pH, Soil Organic Matter (SOM), Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), and uppermost rock. Among these parameters, distance from roads (weight: 0.26), distance from settlements (weight: 0.20), and doline valley area (weight: 0.14) were identified as the most significant accessibility factors. Results indicated that 52% of the karst and karstic areas of Gunungkidul, characterized by arid hills, have potential for food crop agriculture development. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to promote sustainable agricultural systems in karst landscapes more broadly in arid regions.

Forest vegetation is pivotal for maintaining ecological equilibrium and providing essential ecosystem services, yet faces persistent decline, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions like Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Southeast. This study aimed to assess the status and dynamics of forest vegetation across these regions from 2016 to 2024, providing a scientific foundation for sustainable forest management. Using Sentinel-2 imagery (10–20 m resolution), GIS, and a Random Forest classifier, we mapped 21 vegetation classes and assessed forest change in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Southeast regions for 2016–2024. The classifier achieved strong performance (mean precision = 0.81, recall = 0.78, F1 = 0.79). Results indicate a net decline in natural forest area (e.g., Rich evergreen broadleaf forest decreased by 2,166.5 ha; Medium coniferous forest decreased by 1,776.8 ha), while «Other lands» increased by 10,232.5 ha and grasslands/shrub/regenerated trees declined by 10,037 ha, reflecting substantial land-use conversion pressures. The study’s novelty lies in a refined training-sample collection protocol and systematic hyperparameter optimization tailored to highly heterogeneous tropical vegetation and complex terrain, improving classification reliability for large, fragmented landscapes. These quantitative findings provide actionable evidence to support targeted forest management and land-use change mitigation measures. Urgent implementation of sustainable forest management practices and robust biodiversity conservation measures is imperative to protect these valuable forest ecosystems for future generations.

This study examines coastal processes and resulting morphologies during the Holocene on the Turiy Peninsula (the southern part of the Kola Peninsula). The genetic classification of the modern coasts revealed both wave- and non-wavedominated types. Similar patterns were also identified on elevated paleocoastlines. Four geomorphological levels of the Turiy Peninsula were distinguished, considering their age and environmental settings based on field observations, interpretation of satellite images, topographic data, drilling cores, radiocarbon dating, and diatom analysis. The Turiy Peninsula provides a unique setting for paleogeomorphological research due to the good preservation of coastal landforms and the diversity of geomorphological settings. This well-preserved coastal morphology is attributed to relatively high Holocene uplift rates, which caused rapid exposure of the coasts beyond the zone of active wave impact. As such, the area represents a sensitive archive of postglacial coastline response to glacioisostatic uplift in formerly glaciated shield environments. Radiocarbon dating and diatom analysis of sediments from isolated basins allowed us to estimate the regional uplift rate over the last 3.5–4 cal kyr at 5–7 mm/year. These rates are significantly higher than the uplift rates observed in adjacent areas for the same period, supporting the interpretation of block-structured tectonic movements in the region.

The spatiotemporal variability of moisture conditions in the Lake Baikal basin, a key region of Inner Asia, remains insufficiently understood due to the short duration of instrumental observations and the complex interplay of climatic factors. In this study, we reconstructed the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for May–July using four long tree-ring chronologies from the Russian and Mongolian parts of the Baikal basin. Linear models explain 34–57% of the interannual variance in the instrumental PDSI. The 11-year smoothed mean PDSI values reveal alternating periods of in-phase and out-of-phase moisture variability between the two parts of the basin over the past ~250 years, while long-term (30-year) series show divergent trends: increasing moisture availability in the northern (BRG) and southwestern (HEC) parts of the basin and intensifying aridization in the central-southern part (KST, KRN). Several extreme drought (1863, 1923, and 2003) and wet (1938) years with broad spatial extent were identified. Spectral analysis of the reconstructed series revealed significant cycles of approximately 2–5 years and 14–56 years. The results of this study demonstrate substantial spatial heterogeneity in drought dynamics and highlight the influence of both local and large‑scale climatic factors on moisture regimes in Baikal Asia.

Soil-cryogenic complexes (the system of «permafrost-affected soils – upper permafrost»), located at the interaction hotspot of the biosphere and the cryosphere, were studied at five key sites in Northwestern Siberia situated on geomorphological terraces of different origin – from marine to fluvial and lacustrine – and age (Late Pleistocene and Holocene). In the context of the present-day permafrost zone transformation under global climate change and local anthropogenic impact, they are of considerable ecosystem significance. Based on the geomorphological and cryolithological studies, it was concluded that fully developed soil-cryogenic complexes (SCCs), comprising the active layer (AL), transient layer (TL), and intermediate layer (IL), are spatially limited in the study area due to lithogenic and ecosystem factors. Due to the wide distribution of deeply thawing sandy, ice-poor sediments where continuous and thick vegetation cover is unable to develop, morphologically expressed TL was absent, having already fully thawed. Modern soil formation most often occurs directly above the degrading IL or even Late Pleistocene frozen sediments containing fragments of ground ice. Relatively stable permafrost conditions and full-profile SCCs were observed in the thick peat massifs only where the presence of thick organic horizons reduces the heat flux and limits the active layer thickness (ALT). Furthermore, a number of hazardous geomorphological cryogenic processes – including thaw ground subsidence, thermal denudation, and thermal abrasion in coastal areas – contribute to the degradation of SCCs, thereby diminishing their protective role in permafrost preservation. A comprehensive approach to the assessment and forecasting of the ecological state and dynamics of fragile Arctic ecosystems, based on SCC research, could provide a deeper understanding of both natural and anthropogenic processes.

The modern distribution and dispersal history of the family Lecythidaceae s. l. present scientific interest so far as Lecythidaceae has a pantropical areal, thus forming several disjunctions, that may represent ancient continental contacts. Species of this family are distributed in Central America, firstly in the subequatorial and equatorial areas of South America, particularly, in Amazon Basin and some zones of Northern and Central Andes, in the equatorial forests of Congo Basin, along the Gulf of Guinea in Africa, and in South and Southeast Asia. Species of the family are also found in Australia and also in some Oceania Islands. According to modern data, the family, which is part of the order Ericales, includes 30 genera and 395 species [PoWO 2025]. The purpose of research is to point a hypothetical center of origin of the entire family and reconstruct the spreading routes of family species and genera. Several morphological and ecological features (mostly pollination and dissemination) of family representatives were analyzed and compiled. The molecular genetic data for selected taxa of Lecythidaceae s. l. was also analyzed and the results of reconstructing probable dispersal routes were compared with available paleobotanical materials. The resulting molecular genetic model was calibrated according to age of found fossils. The parsimony reconstruction of hypothetical dispersal tracks and dispersal ways of Lecythidaceae s. l. species and genera was based on a detailed calibrated model and became the result of this research. A hypothetical center of origin for the ancestor of the family Lecythidaceae s. l. was identified.

Solar radiation is a vital component of the climate system, and knowledge of its temporal variation is of great importance. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, due to its high photon energy, has a strong impact on the biosphere and human health. In this work, a reconstruction model (version 2) for estimating surface solar radiation long-term variability was proposed. It has been configured to assess the variability of erythemal UV radiation and UV-A radiation within the 315–400 nm spectral range. In this version of the model, physical parameterizations of UV radiation with respect to various factors have been refined, and an additional factor, which accounts for nitrogen dioxide influence on UV radiation, has been added. The model was validated against long-term UV measurements at the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory, which has the longest continuous record of UV observations in the world. The mean RMSE of the differences between model simulations and measurements is on the order of 3% for annual values, which is comparable to the measurement uncertainty. High correlation coefficients (about 0.8) were observed between the modeled and measured values of the UV temporal variability for almost all periods. The analysis of surface UV radiation variability for the 1968–2024 period revealed noticeable UV fluctuations, which were characterized by a minimum in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a maximum after 2010. For erythemal UV radiation, the maximum amplitude of annual changes is about 30%, and for UV-A radiation it is about 19%. Much stronger changes were observed for erythemal UV radiation compared to UV-A radiation owing to the additional influence of ozone variability.

The aim of this exploratory study is to develop an approach for assessing the microplastic content in an urban area. Urban surface-deposited sediments (USDS) are used as a geoindicator component. Three research design schemes have been proposed for determining the microplastic content in USDS. The first scheme involves manually counting polymer particles identified by Raman spectroscopy. The second scheme is based on FTIR (Fourier-transform infrared) analysis of the floating fraction of the USDS, obtained by treating the sediments with a saturated NaCl solution (120 g/L), with quantitative assessment carried out using standard samples prepared from the identified polymers and the mineral matrix. According to the third scheme, polymers in both the floating fraction and the mineral matrix of the USDS were identified using FTIR. The carbon (C), hydrogen (H), and nitrogen (N) contents were then measured. The content of the identified polymers was assessed on the basis of the C:H ratio in the USDS. The first scheme does not allow reliable identification of polymers. The second scheme did not permit reliable quantitative assessment of polymer content in the USDS. However, a combination of FTIR spectroscopy and elemental analysis of floating fraction subsamples <100 μm, separated using a 120 g/L NaCl solution, enabled the quantity of polyethylene (PE) in the USDS to be determined. The total amount of PE in particle size fraction <100 μm of the USDS a residential urban area, using Ekaterinburg (Russia) as a case study, was estimated to range between 242 and 623 tonnes, average value 352 tonnes (corresponding approximately 1100 mg/kg). The quantity of polymers contained within both the mineral matrix and the floating fraction > 100 μm of contemporary sediments remains unknown; it is evident that the total is higher. This estimate is preliminary and may be refined in future studies.

The study is aimed at assessing the concentration of phthalic acid esters (dibutyl phthalate – DBP, diisobutyl phthalate – DIBP, diethylhexyl phthalate – DEHP) in suspended particles of the atmospheric surface layer in monsoon climate conditions of Vladivostok city. The relevance of the work is due to the paucity of data on airborne phthalate pollution in the territory of the Russian Federation and the unique climatic conditions of the region influencing their distribution. Samples were taken during the period of 2014–2022 in two zones, specifically, the urban area (Vtoraya Rechka) and the background area (Russky Island). The gas chromatography with mass spectrometry was used for the sample analysis. It has been found that the DBP and DEHP concentrations in the urban area are significantly higher than those in the background area (6.22 and 10.39 ng/m3 versus 3.34 and 8.61 ng/m3, respectively), which is associated with the presence of anthropogenic sources. Almost no differences between the investigated zones were revealed for DIBP concentration (7.17 and 6.08 ng/m³). This homogeneity likely results from a combination of widespread source distribution and the physicochemical properties governing its environmental transport. The analysis showed significant negative correlations of phthalate concentrations with key meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, wind speed; r = 0.60–0.84) and a strong positive correlation with vehicle traffic intensity (r = 0.72–0.77), confirming the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the distribution of phthalates. Concentrations of phthalates in Vladivostok turned out to be lower than in Asian industrial cities but higher than in European cities. The research outcomes can be used when developing measures to reduce phthalate emissions and predicting their concentrations in a monsoon climate conditions.

Here, we use modeling and literature assessments to quantify the prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by nine major developing economies (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Mexico, and South Africa). We examine the structure of energy consumption, electricity generation, and land use in these countries. Scenario estimates of the dynamics of carbon indicators of the world’s leading economies at global and subglobal scales based on a historical approach have been developed.

It is shown that the current rate of decarbonization and the development of the carbon capture and storage industry in the studied countries is not sufficient for these countries to fulfill their obligations to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050-2070 – this goal cannot be attained before the end of the century. The key challenge in achieving the carbon neutrality is the rapid, large-scale deployment of the carbon capture and storage technologies in all possible forms. Of the countries studied, however, only China and Brazil have their capabilities to store carbon for more than a century.

Although climate change occupies practically a leading place in the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from the declared ones, and the climate warming can no longer be kept within 1.5°C. The core problem is to minimize the residence time for the global climate system in the dangerous zone (with a temperature overshoot above 1.5°C), which will require the emergence of the world economy with negative greenhouse gas emissions.

Hydroclimatic changes along the southernmost coast of the Russian Far East, as reconstructed over the past 2460 years, were primarily driven by the intensity of monsoon circulation that was strongly influenced by solar activity and processes in the low-latitude Pacific. An analysis of ecological indicators of Lotus Lake environment (diatoms, botanical composition, mineral content) revealed periods of increased and decreased lake level that corresponded to strengthening and weakening of the summer monsoon. Lotus Lake experienced six stages of increasing and decreasing of lake watering. The basin originated as a meso-eutrophic lake connected to the sea. The connection between the lake and the sea was interrupted ~2100 yr BP, which caused a change in the geochemical environment. To understand hydroclimate changes, data on surface temperature anomalies in the western tropical Pacific Ocean were used. These anomalies were strongly influenced by El Niño. Changes in the intensity of the warm Kuroshio Current were one of the factors that influenced precipitation. A comparison of regional data showed spatial heterogeneity in the moisture distribution, which was associated with changes in typhoon tracks during the Late Holocene. The paleoclimatic situation on the southernmost coast of the Russian Far East, which experienced a relatively dry Medieval Climate Anomaly and a wet Little Ice Age, was similar to that of Korea. A sharp decrease in lake depth and swamping of the shores occurred at two periods: at the beginning of global cooling (1650–1600 yr BP), and 1230 yr BP, when there was a slight cooling trend and El Niño activation. The greatest variability in environments occurred during the last millennium. There were frequent and abrupt climatic variations, particularly during the Little Ice Age. Evidence of temperature and hydrological changes was obtained for the solar minima; the swamp wetness around Lotus Lake decreased.

This paper presents a systematic literature review of 210 peer-reviewed studies to analyze the state and trends of Land System Science (LSS) research on historical land use and land cover change in Russia from 2000 to 2024. The review reveals a significant and persistent geographical bias, with the vast majority of case studies concentrated in the European part of Russia (e.g., Belgorod, Tula, Moscow regions), while vast areas of Siberia, the Far East, and the Arctic remain critically understudied. Thematically, research is dominated by studies on agricultural land abandonment and forest landscape dynamics, with urban landscapes receiving scant attention. Long-term studies covering periods of more than a century are prevalent. However, their analytical depth is often limited by reliance on historical surveys or aggregated statistics. Satellite remote sensing, especially Landsat images, is the most common source of data. These images are often combined with other types of data. The use of historical cartographic sources (e.g., General Land Survey plans) is hindered by issues of accessibility, digitization, and often insufficient thematic detail for comprehensive landscape analysis. Consequently, studies often use just two time points and a single spatial scale, typically based on administrative rather than biogeographical units. The review identifies a clear linguistic and international visibility gap: 82% of publications are in Russian only, and a substantial portion appear in journals not indexed in international databases, limiting their global integration. Furthermore, a concerning number of studies (74%) do not systematically analyze the driving forces behind the observed landscape changes. This synthesis underscores the urgent need to address regional research disparities, enhance the methodological depth by integrating multi-source historical data and robust causal analysis, and improve the international accessibility of Russian LSS research. By doing so, the Russian LSS community can not only fill critical knowledge gaps within the country but also make a more substantial contribution to global land change science, offering unique insights from its vast and diverse socio-ecological systems.

The study examined air temperature and monthly precipitation totals recorded between 1966 and 2023 at the hydrological and meteorological station of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) in Kielce-Suków and the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS). Based on these data, thermal and precipitation classifications were developed, supplemented by an extended assessment of snow cover duration in the Kielce region.

The results confirm a clear warming trend, reflected in an increasing number of warmer-than-average months and a decline in colder ones. The mean annual temperature has risen by approximately 0.03°C per year (0.33°C per decade), amounting to 1.62°C over the entire study period. Projections suggest an additional increase of approximately 1°C by 2030.

Snow cover conditions exhibited substantial variability. The mean number of days with snow cover (≥1 cm) was 63, ranging from 7 days in 2020 to 114 days in 1969, indicating a decline in recent decades. Average winter snow depth (December–March) was 4.84 cm, with extreme values recorded in 2020 (0.07 cm) and 1970 (23.4 cm). Maximum annual snow depth varied between 4 cm (2020) and 55 cm (1970). The mean duration of persistent snow cover (≥30 days) was 45 days, with a maximum of 88 days in 2006.

Precipitation patterns did not show a consistent long-term trend comparable to temperature. While summer months (June–August) still receive the highest totals, their temporal distribution is shifting. Some months (e.g., July, September) exhibit decreasing precipitation, whereas others (e.g., August, December) show increasing or no clear tendencies. The observed annual and seasonal variability is likely to intensify under ongoing climate change.

These findings underscore important implications for local ecosystems, agriculture, and water resource management, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies in the Świętokrzyskie region.

The paper is devoted to the application of the TerM land surface model to reproduce the water regime of typical watersheds of the European part of Russia (Vychegda River, Oka River) under the conditions of modern climate. The work evaluates the quality of the TerM model with respect to the main components of the water regime in regional climatic conditions: long-time runoff mean, mean snow water equivalent at the beginning of melting, volume and dates of spring floods in the studied catchments. The quality of the model is assessed by comparing the results of numerical experiments with observational data. To obtain optimal results, a number of model improvements are proposed, in particular: accounting for artificial irrigation of cultivated plants in the process of transpiration, calibration of the infiltration capacity parameter of watershed soils, roughness Manning coefficient for river bed and coefficient of river network tortuosity. The TerM model with the proposed modifications successfully reproduces main characteristics of the water regime in the studied catchments.

The tick Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev, 1946 is a vector of tick-borne encephalitis virus, Borrelia, and a number of other diseases. It is widespread in Siberia and the Far East, and its range has expanded in recent decades. The purpose of this study was to create a model of its potential distribution over three periods: 1961–1980, 1981–2000 and 2001–2020, during which strong climate change was observed. Modeling was performed using the MaxEnt algorithm. A total of 81 detection points were identified from literature and databases. Bioclimatic parameters were used as the only predictors because climate is apparently the principal factor limiting the distribution of I. pavlovskyi. Five bioclimatic parameters with the lowest pairwise correlations and their transformation functions were selected to provide the best model. Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc), Boyce Index, and Area Under Curve (AUC) were used as model quality metrics. In addition to known distribution areas, new potential territories of distribution with high suitability were identified, including those in Russia, Japan, Central Asia, the Caucasus, China, Canada, and the northern United States. According to the results of modeling, the greatest changes in the potential climatic range of I. pavlovskyi during the study periods occurred in the Siberian part of its range, where the area of high suitability expanded substantially during 2001–2020 as a result of climate change. In other regions, little shift in the potential range of I. pavlovskyi was observed. Also, it was identified that BIO1 (annual mean temperature) and BIO15 (precipitation seasonality) are the most important parameters for model construction.

The paper presents a study of annual runoff and water availability changes in the Volga–Kama and Angara–Yenisei reservoir basins under contemporary and mid-21st century scenario global anthropogenic warming. The estimates of changes are based on a comparison of runoff under global warming and for the reference period, calculated from observational data and averaged results of its calculation performed with an ensemble of global climate models. During the period of contemporary global warming, the average long-term annual runoff and water availability per unit area and per capita increased, especially in the Volga–Kama reservoir basins, with the exception of the Volgograd reservoir basin, where they decreased sharply. The observed and average model annual runoff in the considered reservoir basins is closely correlated for contemporary global warming as well as for baseline periods. However, for a fairly significant number of basins, the model runoff differs significantly from the observed value. The observed and model difference in the runoff of the two compared periods differs significantly in the Volga–Kama as well as in Angara–Yenisei reservoir basins. Nevertheless, the sign of the difference is the same in almost all basins. In 2040–2069 the annual runoff under varying intensity warming scenarios may increase relative to the model reference period runoff in all reservoir basins of the Angara–Yenisei cascade, whereas in the Volga–Kama reservoir basins the probable runoff changes are likely to have different signs relative to the runoff of the reference period. In most basins the per capita scenario water availability is likely to increase by varying degrees, partly owing to the probable population decline.