Geographical ranks of ecosystem sustainability: evidence from a 66-year provenance trial of a keystone boreal forest species
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4718
Abstract
Understanding the spatial determinants of long-term forest ecosystem sustainability is a prerequisite for designing effective climate adaptation strategies. Long-term provenance trials serve as invaluable in situ laboratories for assessing the adaptive capacity of keystone forest species under novel climatic regimes. This study capitalizes on a unique 66-year-old experiment involving 44 climatic ecotypes of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) – a foundation species of the Eurasian boreal and temperate forests – in Belarus to quantify, for the first time, the relationship between geographical origin and a composite, multi-criteria ecosystem sustainability rank. A novel ranking system was developed, reinterpreting conventional mensurational metrics – stand survival, structural integrity, and biomass stock – as empirical proxies for adaptive capacity and functional resilience. The analysis revealed a pronounced, non-linear geographical gradient in sustainability. The Bryansk ecotype (Central Russian Upland) achieved the highest composite sustainability rank (1.4), significantly outperforming local populations. Northern and south-eastern ecotypes exhibited critically low adaptive capacity, with several provenances undergoing terminal stand collapse. The local Vitebsk ecotype, possessing the single highest radial growth rate, displayed only intermediate integral sustainability, demonstrating that current productivity and long-term resilience are decoupled. The findings provide direct, whole-life-cycle evidence that the geographical provenance of a foundation tree species is a primary determinant of ecosystem stability under a shifting climate. The generated geographical sustainability ranks offer a scalable, spatially explicit decision-support tool for selecting optimal seed sources and adaptive management trajectories to enhance the resilience of forest landscapes across the East European Plain.
Keywords
provenance trial,
sustainability gradient,
adaptive capacity,
Pinus sylvestris L.,
resilience,
climate adaptation,
geographical ranking,
boreal forest
Supporting agencies: The collection and analysis of samples and climatype research were carried out by S.V.R., L.F.P., P.V.T. within the framework of the joint project “Evaluation of the effectiveness of breeding improvement from the use of reproductive seed and planting material of Scots pine of the Negorelskaya variety based on a study of the quality of forest seed raw materials and the growth of forest plantations of the varietal level” (supported by grants from the State Committee on Science and Technology of the Republic of Belarus and the Saint Petersburg Science Foundation). The development and conceptualization of the FLR-model were carried out by T.P.N. and A.I.N. within the framework of the same joint project, under the grant from the Saint Petersburg Science Foundation (grant No. 25-РБ-06-15).
About the Authors
Siarhei U. Rabko
Belarusian State Technological University
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk, 220006
Liliya F. Paplauskaya
Belarusian State Technological University
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk, 220006
Pavel V. Tupik
Belarusian State Technological University
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk, 220006
Pavel Ye. Sulim
Belarusian State Technological University
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk, 220006
Nebi Bilir
Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Forestry
Turkey
Turkey
Isparta, 32260
Tatyana P. Novikova
Saint-Petersburg Forest Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg, 194021
Arthur I. Novikov
Saint-Petersburg Forest Technical University; Agrophysical Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg, 194021
St. Petersburg, 195220
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For citations:
Rabko S.U., Paplauskaya L.F., Tupik P.V., Sulim P.Ye., Bilir N., Novikova T.P., Novikov A.I. Geographical ranks of ecosystem sustainability: evidence from a 66-year provenance trial of a keystone boreal forest species. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2026;19(3):146-151. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4718
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