gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4718gesj-5053Research ArticleRESEARCH PAPERСтатьиGeographical ranks of ecosystem sustainability: evidence from a 66-year provenance trial of a keystone boreal forest speciesRabkoSiarhei U.

Minsk, 220006

PaplauskayaLiliya F.

Minsk, 220006

TupikPavel V.

Minsk, 220006

SulimPavel Ye.

Minsk, 220006

BilirNebi

Isparta, 32260

NovikovaTatyana P.

St. Petersburg, 194021

NovikovArthur I.

St. Petersburg, 194021

St. Petersburg, 195220

Belarusian State Technological UniversityBelarusIsparta University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of ForestryTurkeySaint-Petersburg Forest Technical UniversityRussian FederationSaint-Petersburg Forest Technical University; Agrophysical Research InstituteRussian Federation202609102026193146151Copyright © Rabko S.U., Paplauskaya L.F., Tupik P.V., Sulim P.Y., Bilir N., Novikova T.P., Novikov A.I., 20262026Rabko S.U., Paplauskaya L.F., Tupik P.V., Sulim P.Y., Bilir N., Novikova T.P., Novikov A.I.Rabko S.U., Paplauskaya L.F., Tupik P.V., Sulim P.Y., Bilir N., Novikova T.P., Novikov A.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/5053

Understanding the spatial determinants of long-term forest ecosystem sustainability is a prerequisite for designing effective climate adaptation strategies. Long-term provenance trials serve as invaluable in situ laboratories for assessing the adaptive capacity of keystone forest species under novel climatic regimes. This study capitalizes on a unique 66-year-old experiment involving 44 climatic ecotypes of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) – a foundation species of the Eurasian boreal and temperate forests – in Belarus to quantify, for the first time, the relationship between geographical origin and a composite, multi-criteria ecosystem sustainability rank. A novel ranking system was developed, reinterpreting conventional mensurational metrics – stand survival, structural integrity, and biomass stock – as empirical proxies for adaptive capacity and functional resilience. The analysis revealed a pronounced, non-linear geographical gradient in sustainability. The Bryansk ecotype (Central Russian Upland) achieved the highest composite sustainability rank (1.4), significantly outperforming local populations. Northern and south-eastern ecotypes exhibited critically low adaptive capacity, with several provenances undergoing terminal stand collapse. The local Vitebsk ecotype, possessing the single highest radial growth rate, displayed only intermediate integral sustainability, demonstrating that current productivity and long-term resilience are decoupled. The findings provide direct, whole-life-cycle evidence that the geographical provenance of a foundation tree species is a primary determinant of ecosystem stability under a shifting climate. The generated geographical sustainability ranks offer a scalable, spatially explicit decision-support tool for selecting optimal seed sources and adaptive management trajectories to enhance the resilience of forest landscapes across the East European Plain.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.