What are the key elements influencing urban thermal comfort in large urban areas? A holistic remote sensing approach

Ivan N. Alov; Marko D. Petrović; Ruslan A. Bulgakov; Sofia A. Ganzhinova; Sergey N. Tyupanov; Dana Shukirbayeva

doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4503

What are the key elements influencing urban thermal comfort in large urban areas? A holistic remote sensing approach

Ivan N. Alov, Marko D. Petrović, Ruslan A. Bulgakov, Sofia A. Ganzhinova, Sergey N. Tyupanov, Dana Shukirbayeva

https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4503

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Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to assess the effects of rising surface temperatures and greening on urban thermal comfort and resilience. Landsat 8 satellite images were collected and analyzed for 80 large urban areas from the C40 network. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) were calculated. Using UN population forecasts, a forecast model for LST and NDVI dynamics was developed. The analysis reveals that population density may be a stronger predictor of urban heat island exposure than climate zone or vegetation cover, with high-density areas showing substantially higher LST values even when vegetation cover is held constant. Based on Köppen climate zones, urban areas are expected to experience diverging temperature futures. The most concerning LST increases are projected for BWh (hot desert), Cfa (humid subtropical), and Dwa (continental with dry winter, hot summer) zones. Cfa and Dwa areas are predicted to become the hottest overall. BWh zones, while less troubled today, will likely see a sharp LST rise, driven by hyper-urbanization and the disproportionate impact of global warming on arid regions. Paradoxically, while BWh areas may see a slight NDVI increase, their warming trend is still expected to continue beyond a temporary dip forecast for Cfa and Dwa zones. This underscores that only decisive policy action can help these vulnerable areas mitigate the negative effects.

Keywords

urban thermal comfort, urban health, urban resilience, LST, NDVI

About the Authors

Ivan N. Alov

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Faculty of Economics, Department of Regional Economics and Geography
Russian Federation

6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., Moscow, 117198

Marko D. Petrović

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Faculty of Economics, Department of Regional Economics and Geography; Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts,
Russian Federation

6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., Moscow, 117198

9 Djure Jakšića St., Belgrade, 11000

Ruslan A. Bulgakov

Qala AI Ltd
Kazakhstan

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

Sofia A. Ganzhinova

Terra Vista
Russian Federation

1/1 Marshala Vasilevskogo St., Moscow, 123098

Sergey N. Tyupanov

Qala AI Ltd
Kazakhstan

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

Dana Shukirbayeva

Qala AI Ltd
Kazakhstan

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

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For citations:

Alov I.N., Petrović M.D., Bulgakov R.A., Ganzhinova S.A., Tyupanov S.N., Shukirbayeva D. What are the key elements influencing urban thermal comfort in large urban areas? A holistic remote sensing approach. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2026;19(3):87-98. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4503

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