References

gesj

GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY

2071-93882542-1565

Russian Geographical Society

10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4503

gesj-5047

Research Article

RESEARCH PAPER

Статьи

What are the key elements influencing urban thermal comfort in large urban areas? A holistic remote sensing approach

Alov

Ivan N.

6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., Moscow, 117198

Petrović

Marko D.

6 Miklukho-Maklaya St., Moscow, 117198

9 Djure Jakšića St., Belgrade, 11000

m.petrovic@gi.sanu.ac.rs

Bulgakov

Ruslan A.

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

Ganzhinova

Sofia A.

1/1 Marshala Vasilevskogo St., Moscow, 123098

Tyupanov

Sergey N.

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

Shukirbayeva

Dana

41 Zharokova St., Almaty, 050051

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Faculty of Economics, Department of Regional Economics and GeographyRussian FederationPeoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Faculty of Economics, Department of Regional Economics and Geography; Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts,Russian FederationQala AI LtdKazakhstanTerra VistaRussian Federation

2026

09102026

1938798

2026

Alov I.N., Petrović M.D., Bulgakov R.A., Ganzhinova S.A., Tyupanov S.N., Shukirbayeva D.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/5047

This paper presents a methodology to assess the effects of rising surface temperatures and greening on urban thermal comfort and resilience. Landsat 8 satellite images were collected and analyzed for 80 large urban areas from the C40 network. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) were calculated. Using UN population forecasts, a forecast model for LST and NDVI dynamics was developed. The analysis reveals that population density may be a stronger predictor of urban heat island exposure than climate zone or vegetation cover, with high-density areas showing substantially higher LST values even when vegetation cover is held constant. Based on Köppen climate zones, urban areas are expected to experience diverging temperature futures. The most concerning LST increases are projected for BWh (hot desert), Cfa (humid subtropical), and Dwa (continental with dry winter, hot summer) zones. Cfa and Dwa areas are predicted to become the hottest overall. BWh zones, while less troubled today, will likely see a sharp LST rise, driven by hyper-urbanization and the disproportionate impact of global warming on arid regions. Paradoxically, while BWh areas may see a slight NDVI increase, their warming trend is still expected to continue beyond a temporary dip forecast for Cfa and Dwa zones. This underscores that only decisive policy action can help these vulnerable areas mitigate the negative effects.

urban thermal comforturban healthurban resilienceLSTNDVI

The research was supported by the Ministry of Science, Technological Development, and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (Contract No. 451-03-33/2026-03/200172), and by the RUDN University (Grant No. 060510-0-000).

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.