The radiation reconstruction model (Version 2) and its application for estimating variability of ultraviolet radiation over the 1968–2024 period in Moscow

N. Ye. Chubarova

doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4580

The radiation reconstruction model (Version 2) and its application for estimating variability of ultraviolet radiation over the 1968–2024 period in Moscow

N. Ye. Chubarova

https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4580

Full Text:

PDF (Eng)

Generate QR code

Abstract

Solar radiation is a vital component of the climate system, and knowledge of its temporal variation is of great importance. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, due to its high photon energy, has a strong impact on the biosphere and human health. In this work, a reconstruction model (version 2) for estimating surface solar radiation long-term variability was proposed. It has been configured to assess the variability of erythemal UV radiation and UV-A radiation within the 315–400 nm spectral range. In this version of the model, physical parameterizations of UV radiation with respect to various factors have been refined, and an additional factor, which accounts for nitrogen dioxide influence on UV radiation, has been added. The model was validated against long-term UV measurements at the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory, which has the longest continuous record of UV observations in the world. The mean RMSE of the differences between model simulations and measurements is on the order of 3% for annual values, which is comparable to the measurement uncertainty. High correlation coefficients (about 0.8) were observed between the modeled and measured values of the UV temporal variability for almost all periods. The analysis of surface UV radiation variability for the 1968–2024 period revealed noticeable UV fluctuations, which were characterized by a minimum in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a maximum after 2010. For erythemal UV radiation, the maximum amplitude of annual changes is about 30%, and for UV-A radiation it is about 19%. Much stronger changes were observed for erythemal UV radiation compared to UV-A radiation owing to the additional influence of ozone variability.

Keywords

Reconstruction model, UV radiation, ozone, aerosol, cloudiness, long-term UV series

About the Author

N. Ye. Chubarova

Lomonosov Moscow State University/Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation

Vorobyovy Gory, GSP-1, 119991

References

1. Abakumova G. M., Feigelson E. M., Russak V., Stadnik V. V. (1996). Evaluation of long-term changes in radiation, cloudiness, and surface temperature on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Journal of Climate, vol. 9, No 6, pp. 1319—1327.

2. Abakumova G.M., Gorbarenko E.V., Nezval E.I., Shilovtseva O.A. (2008). Fifty years of actinometrical measurements in Moscow. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Taylor & Francis (United Kingdom), V. 29, № 9, p. 2629-2665.

3. Andrady, AL, Aucamp, PJ, Austin, A, Bais, AF, Ballaré, CL, Björn, LO, Bornman JF, Caldwell, MM, Cullen, AP, de Gruijl, FR, Erickson III, DJ, Flint, SD, Häder, D-P, Hamid, H, Ilyas, S, M, Longstreth, J, Lucas, R, Madronich, S, McKenzie, RL, Norval, M, Paul ND, Robinson, SA, Shao, M, Solomon KR, Sulzberger, B, Takizawa, Y, Tang X, Torikai, A, van der Leun, JC, Williamson, CE, Wilson,SR, Worrest, RC & Zepp RG (2010). Environmental Effects of Ozone Depletion: 2010 Assessment, United Nations Environment Programme, Kenya, 328 p.

4. Bais, A.F., McKenzie, R.L., Bernhard, G. et al. (2014). Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation. Photochem Photobiol Sci 14, 19–52. https://doi.org/10.1039/c4pp90032d.

5. Barnes P. W., Robson T. M., Neale P. J., Williamson C. E., Zepp R. G.. et al. (2022).·Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021, Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences 21:275–301, https://doi.org/10.1007/s43630-022-00176-5.

6. Bernhard, G., Dahlback, A., Fioletov, V., Heikkilä, A., Johnsen, B., Koskela, T., Lakkala, K., and Svendby, T. (2013). High levels of ultraviolet radiation observed by ground-based instruments below the 2011 Arctic ozone hole, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10573–10590, https://doi. org/10.5194/acp-13-10573-2013.

7. Bernhard G. H., Bais A. F. Aucamp· P. J., Klekociuk A. R., LileyJ. B. McKenzie R. L. (2023). Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences 22:937–989 https://doi.org/10.1007/s43630-023-00371-1.

8. Burrows, J. P., Dehn, A., Deters, B., Himmelmann, S., Richter, A., Voigt, S., and Orphal, J. (1998). Atmospheric Remote-Sensing Reference Data from GOME: Part 1. Temperature-Dependent Absorption Cross-sections of NO2 in the 231–794 nm Range, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Ra., 60, 1025–1031, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-4073(97)00197-0.

9. Calbo´, J., D. Page`s, and J.-A. Gonza´lez (2005), Empirical studies of cloud effects on UV radiation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2004RG000155.

10. Chubarova N.E. (1998). Ultraviolet radiation under broken cloud conditions as inferred from many-year ground-based observations. Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd (Road Town, United Kingdom), V. 34, № 1, p. 131-135.

11. Chubarova N.Ye, Yurova A.Yu, Krotkov N., Herman J., Bhartia P.K. (2002). Comparisons between ground measurements of broadband ultraviolet irradiance (300 to 380 nm) and total ozone mapping spectrometer ultraviolet estimates at Moscow from 1979 to 2000. Optical Engineering, SPIE, the International Society for Optical Engineering (Bellingham, WA, United States), V. 41, № 12, p. 3070-3081.

12. Chubarova N.E. (2002) Monitoring of Biologically Active UV Radiation In The Moscow Region. Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd (Road Town, United Kingdom), V. 38, № 3, p. 312-322.

13. Chubarova N.E. (2006). Role of tropospheric gases in the absorption of UV radiation Doklady Earth Sciences, Maik Nauka/Interperiodica Publishing (Russian Federation), V. 407, № 2, p. 294-297.

14. Chubarova N.E. (2008). UV variability in Moscow according to long-term UV measurements and reconstruction model. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8, pp. 3025–3031.

15. Chubarova, N. Y., and Nezval΄, Y. I. (2000). Thirty year variability of UV irradiance in Moscow, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 614 12529–12539, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD901192.

16. Chubarova N.E., Pastukhova A.S., Galin V.Ya, Smyshlyaev S.P. (2018). Long-Term Variability of UV Irradiance in the Moscow Region according to Measurement and Modeling Data. Izvestiya Akademii Nauk Fizika Atmosfery I Okeana, V. 54, № 2, p. 139-146, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433818020056.

17. Čížková, K., Láska, K., Metelka, L., and Staněk, M. (2018). Reconstruction and analysis of erythemal UV radiation time series from Hradec Králové (Czech Republic) over the past 50 years, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1805–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1805-2018.

18. den Outer, P. N., Slaper, H., Kaurola, J., Lindfors, A., Kazantzidis, A., Bais, A. F., Feister, U., Junk, J., Janouch, M., and Josefsson, W. (2010). Reconstructing of erythemal ultraviolet radiation levels in Europe for the past 4 decades, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012827.

19. Gorbarenko E. V., (2016).Climate Changes in Atmospheric Radiation Parameters from the MSU Meteorological Observatory Data, Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 12[Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 12, 41.

20. Gorbarenko E.V. (2020). Radiation Climate of Moscow. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 478–487 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920070031.

21. Gorbarenko E.V. (2022). Extremes and main trends in the long-term variability of atmospheric radiation parameters in Moscow. Bulletin of the Moscow University. Series 5: Geography, Moscow Publishing House. University (Moscow), No. 6, pp. 90-103.

22. Herman, J. R (2010). Global increase in UV irradiance during the past 30 years (1979–2008) estimated from satellite data, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D04203, doi:10.1029/2009JD012219.

23. Hulsen G & Groebner J. (2018). Report of the Second International UV Filter Radiometer Calibration Campaign UVC-II WMO/GAW No. 240 World Meteorological Organization Geneva.

24. Kaurola, J., Taalas P., Koskela T., Borkowski J., and Josefsson W. (2000). Long-term variations of UV-B doses at three stations in northern Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 20813-20820.

25. Lindfors, A., Kaurola J., Arola A., Koskela T., Lakkala K., Josefsson W., Olseth J. A., and Johnsen B (2007). A method for reconstruction of past UV radiation based on radiative transfer modeling: Applied to four stations in northern Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23201, doi:10.1029/2007JD008454.

26. Krzy´scin, J. W., Eerme, K., Janouch, M. (2004). Long-term variations of the UV-B radiation over Central Europe as derived from the reconstructed UV time series. Annales Geophysicae, 22, 1473–1485.

27. Krzyścin J. W., Czerwińska A., Rajewska-Więch B., Jarosławski J., Sobolewski P. S., Pawlak I. (2025). Biologically effective daily radiant exposure for erythema appearance, previtamin D3 synthesis and clearing of psoriatic lesions from erythema biometers at Belsk, Poland, for the period 1976-2023. Earth System Science Data. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-622.

28. Liepert B. G. (2002). Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, vol. 10, No 29, pp. 61-1-61—4.

29. Liou K. N. (2010). An Introduction t to Atmospheric Radiation. Second Edition. International Geophysics Series, V.34, Academic Press, pp.583.

30. Lohmann U., Feichter J. (2005). Global indirect aerosol effects: a review — Atm. Chem. Physics, 2005, vol. 3, No 5, pp. 715—737.

31. Long C.N., Dutton E.G., Augustine J.A., Wiscombe W., Wild M., McFarlane S.A., Flynn C.J. (2009). Significant decadal brightening of downwelling shortwave in the continental United States. — J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., 114:D00d06.

32. Madronich, S. and Flocke, S. (1998). The role of solar radiation in atmospheric chemistry, in Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, edited by P. Boule, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, p.1-26.

33. McKenzie R, Connor B, Bodeker G. (1999). Increased summertime UV radiation in New Zealand in response to ozone loss. Science. Sep 10; 285(5434):1709-11. doi: 10.1126/science.285.5434.1709. PMID: 10481002.

34. Ohmura A. (2009). Observed decadal variations in surface solar radiation and their causes — Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 114, pp. 1—9.

35. Piacentini R.D., E. Crino, J. Sirur Flores, M. Ginzburg, (2002). Intercomparison between ground based and TOMS/EP satellite southern hemisphere ozone data. New results, Advances in Space Research, Volume 29, Issue 11, 2002, P. 1643-1648

36. Poliukhov A.A., Zhdanova E.Yu, Chubarova N.Ye. (2024).Long-term variations of aerosol optical depth according to satellite data and its effects on radiation and temperature in the Moscow megacity, Atmospheric Research, Elsevier BV , V.304.

37. Sanchez-Lorenzo A., Wild M., Brunetti M., Guijarro J. A., Hakuba M. Z., Calbó J., Mystakidis S., Bartok B. (2015). Reassessment and update of long-term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe (1939—2012) — Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015, vol. 18, No 120, pp. 9555—9569.

38. Stjern C. W., Kristjansson J. E., Hansen A. W.(2009). Global dimming and global brightening: an analysis of surface radiation and cloud cover data in northern Europe. — International Journal of Climatology, vol. 5, No 29, pp. 643—653.

39. Streets D.G., Yan F., Chin M., Diehl T., Mahowald N., Schultz M., Wild M., Wu Y., Yu C. (2009). Anthropogenic and natural contributions to regional trends in aerosol optical depth, 1980—2006. — J. Geophys. Res-Atmos., vol. 14, No 114, pp. 1—16.

40. Tarasova, T.A. and Yarkho E.V. (1991). Determination of aerosol optical thickness using measurements of direct integral solar radiation. Soviet Meteorology and Hydrology, (English translation), 12, 66-71.

41. Timofeev. Yu.M., A.V. Vasiliev. (2003). Theoretical foundations of atmospheric optics. Sankt-Petersburg, “Nauka” ISBN: 5-02-024976-9.

42. The third assessment report on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. (2022). Scienceintensive Technologies Publishing House, p.123

43. Volpert E.V., Chubarova N.E. (2021). Long-term Changes in Solar Radiation in Northern Eurasia during the Warm Season According to Measurements and Reconstruction Model. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, Allerton Press Inc. (United States), V. 46, № 8, p. 507-518.

44. Vysotsky A.V., Garadzha M.P., Nezval E.I.,Dorokhov V.M., Klimova T.N., Torgovichev V.A., Khattatov V.U. (1982). Development of equipment for monitoring ultraviolet radiation in the book: Monitoring background pollution of the natural environment. L., Hydrometeoizdat, pp. 180-188.

45. Wild M. (2016). Decadal changes in radiative fluxes at land and ocean surfaces and their relevance for global warming — Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 1, No 7, pp. 91—107.

46. Wild M. (2012). Enlightening global dimming and brightening — Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 1, No 93, pp. 27—37.

47. Wild M. (2009).Global dimming and brightening: A review — Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 12, No 114, pp. 1—31: doi:10.1029/2008JD011470.

48. Wang K.C., Dickinson R.E., Liang S.L. (2009). Clear sky visibility has decreased over land globally from 1973 to 2007. — Science, vol. 323, pp.1468—1470.

49. Wang K., Dickinson R. E. (2013). Global Atmospheric downward radiation at the surface from ground-based observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalyses — Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 51, pp. 150—185.

50. Wang K., Dickinson R. E. (2013). Global Atmospheric downward radiation at the surface from ground-based observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalyses — Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 51, pp. 150—185.

51. WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (2007). Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project—Report No. 50, 572 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, Chapter 7. Surface Ultraviolet Radiation: Past, Present, and Future, eds. Bais A., Lubin D.

52. Zhang, Z., Li, J., Che, H., Dong, Y., Dubovik, O., Eck, T., Gupta, P., Holben, B., Kim, J., Lind, E., Saud, T., Tripathi, S. N., and Ying, T. (2025). Longterm trends in aerosol properties derived from AERONET measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4617–4637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4617-2025, 2025.

53. Zhdanova E.Yu, Chubarova N.Ye, Blumthaler M. (2014). Biologically Active UV-Radiation and UV-Resources in Moscow (1999–2013). Geography, Environment, Sustainability, Russian Geographical Society (Moscow), № 2, p. 71-85.

54. Zubov, V., Rozanov, E., & Egorova, T. (2025). Projection of the UV Radiation for Vitamin D Production Changes Between 2015–2024 and 2090–2099 Periods. Atmosphere, 16(6), 686. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060686.

Review

For citations:

Chubarova N.Ye. The radiation reconstruction model (Version 2) and its application for estimating variability of ultraviolet radiation over the 1968–2024 period in Moscow. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2026;19(2):129-138. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4580

JATS XML