Evaluating mangrove carbon balance dynamics in the karimunjawa archipelago under spatiotemporal land cover change

Mangrove ecosystems play a critical role in coastal resilience and long-term carbon storage, yet their spatiotemporal dynamics in small island systems remain poorly understood. This study analyzes mangrove land-cover change from 2000 to 2022 across four major islands in the Karimunjawa Archipelago (Karimunjawa, Kemujan, Parang, and Nyamuk) and projects future trends to 2042. Using multi-temporal satellite imagery and carbon stock–based estimates of CO₂ emissions resulting from mangrove land-cover change, the results reveal heterogeneous trajectories of degradation and recovery. Estimated CO₂ emissions were calculated by multiplying the change in carbon stock, the molecular weight conversion factor from carbon (12/44), and the area of mangrove land-cover change (ha). In 2015, Karimunjawa and Kemujan maintain the largest mangrove extents but are also associated with the highest estimated CO₂ emissions, reaching 273,899.30 t CO₂ ha-¹ as a consequence of land-use conversion, whereas Nyamuk exhibits relatively stable dynamics with localized carbon stock loss corresponding to estimated CO₂ emissions of up to 1,037.13 t CO₂ ha-¹, and Parang shows persistent decline with estimated CO₂ emissions of up to 587.97 t CO₂ ha-¹. Future projections indicate increasing carbon stock loss and associated estimated CO₂ emissions toward 2042, particularly on Kemujan, Nyamuk, and Parang, reaching 574,188.40, 2,551.95, and 1,953.84 t CO₂ ha-¹, respectively, highlighting growing risks to coastal ecosystem integrity and climate change mitigation efforts. These findings underscore the influence of geomorphology, anthropogenic pressure, and governance in shaping mangrove dynamics on small islands. Integrated, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are therefore essential to conserve mangrove carbon stocks, minimize carbon losses associated with land-cover change, and strengthen coastal resilience in the Karimunjawa Archipelago.

1. Abino A.C., Castillo J.A.A., Lee Y.J. (2014). Assessment of species diversity, biomass and carbon sequestration potential of a natural mangrove stand in Samar, the Philippines. For Sci Technol, 10(1):2–8, https://doi.org/10.1080/21580103.2013.814593

2. Adjovu G. E., Stephen H., James D., & Ahmad S. (2023). Overview of the application of remote sensing in effective monitoring of water quality parameters. Remote Sensing, 15(7), 1938, DOI:10.3390/rs15071938.

3. Akber M.A., Aziz A.A., and Lovelock C. (2020). Major drivers of coastal aquaculture expansion in Southeast Asia. Ocean & Coastal Management, 198, 105364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105364

4. Alongi D.M. (2014). Carbon cycling and storage in mangrove forests. Annual review of marine science, 6(1), 195-219. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010213-135020

5. Amelia R., Basyuni M., Alfinsyahri A., Sulistiyono N., Slamet B., Bimantara Y., and Arifanti V.B. (2023). Evaluation of plant growth and potential of carbon storage in the restored mangrove of an abandoned pond in Lubuk Kertang, North Sumatra, Indonesia. Forests, 14(1), 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14010158

6. Anisah A., Wahyono Y., Ariyanto N., Sasongko N.A., Kumalasari I., Putri V.Z.E., and Ariyanti D. (2024). Evaluating the environmental impacts of land use change in the conservation area of Indonesian National Park using life cycle assessment. Regional studies in marine science, 80, 103889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103889

7. Ardhani T.S.P., Murdiyarso D., Kusmana C. (2020). Effects of permeable barriers on total ecosystem carbon stocks of mangrove forests and abandoned ponds in Demak District, Central Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas. 21(11). https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d211134.

8. Arifanti V.B., Basyuni M., Suharti S., Slamet B., Karlina E., Sidik F., and Ali H.M. (2025). Assessing the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of mangrove loss in Indonesia: A synthesis for science-based policy. Forest Science and Technology, 21(4), 430-446.. https://doi.org/10.1080/21580103.2025.2536595

9. Arifanti V.B., Kauffman J.B., Subarno, Ilman M., Tosiani A., and Novita N. (2022). Contributions of mangrove conservation and restoration to climate change mitigation in Indonesia. Global Change Biology, 28(15), 4523-4538. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16216

10. Asadi M.A., Al-kareem A.S.B., Aprilianto R.Y., Sartimbul A., Yamindago A., Saputra D.K., and Riyadi A. (2024). Assessment of mangrove structures and biomass on islands along the Java Sea: a case study on Bawean Islands and Karimunjawa Islands. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 12, 1422749. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2024.1422749

11. Asbridge E.F., Bartolo R., Finlayson C.M., Lucas R.M., Rogers K., and Woodroffe C.D. (2019). Assessing the distribution and drivers of mangrove dieback in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 228, 106353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106353

12. Atwood T.B., Connolly R.M., Almahasheer H., Carnell P.E., Duarte C.M., Lewis C.J.E., Irigoien X., Kelleway J.J., Lavery P.S., Macreadie P.I., Serrano O., Sanders C.J., Santos I., Steven A.D.L. and Lovelock C.E. (2017). Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses. Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 523–528. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3326

13. Bacar F.F. (2025). Forest habitat loss diminishes the landscape connectivity in a biodiversity hotspot. Biodiversity and Conservation, 34(4), 1403–1430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-025-03024-x

14. Bacar F.F. (2025). Mapping plant taxonomic diversity and spatial structure of mangrove communities with spaceborne imagery. Community Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42974-025-00252-7

15. Basyuni M., Amelia R., Aznawi A.A., Wirasatriya A., Iryanthony S.B., Slamet B., Musatniroh S., Rahmania R., Rahmila Y.I., Sumarga E., Larekeng S.H., Salmo III S., Kajita I., Sivaipram I., Ali H.A. and Aznawi A.A. (2025). Reduction of mangrove carbon stocks ecosystems attributed to illegal logging using combination of unmanned aerial vehicle imagery and field surveys. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 11(1), 225–242. https://doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2025.01.14

16. Baumgartner U., Kell S. and Nguyen T.H. (2016). Arbitrary mangrove-to-water ratios imposed on shrimp farmers in Vietnam contradict with the aims of sustainable forest management. SpringerPlus 5, 438. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2070-3

17. Bhargava R. and Friess D.A. (2022). Previous shoreline dynamics determine future susceptibility to cyclone impact in the Sundarban mangrove forest. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, 814577. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.814577

18. Bryan-Brown D.N., Connolly R.M., Richards D.R., Adame F., Friess D.A. and Brown C.J. (2020). Global trends in mangrove forest fragmentation. Scientific Reports, 10, 7117. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63880-1

19. Bu F., Nan Q., Li W., Bolan N., Sarkar B., Meng J. and Wang H. (2022). Meta-analysis for quantifying carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emission in paddy soils one year after biochar application. Agronomy, 12(12), 3065. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12123065

20. Cameron C., Hutley L.B., Friess D.A. and Brown B. (2019). Community structure dynamics and carbon stock change of rehabilitated mangrove forests in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Ecological Applications, 29(1), 1–20. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26669238

21. Choudhary B., Dhar V. and Pawase A.S. (2024). Blue carbon and the role of mangroves in carbon sequestration: Its mechanisms, estimation, human impacts and conservation strategies for economic incentives. Journal of Sea Research, 199, 102504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2024.102504

22. Fajeriadi H., Fahmi F., Dharmono D., Zaini M., Putra A.P., Suyidno S. and Saifuddin M.F. (2024). The role of estuarine wetland in carbon storage for climate change mitigation: A bibliometric analysis. In BIO Web of Conferences [Online] Volume 148, p. 02024. EDP Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202414802024

23. Friess D.A., Adame M.F., Adams J.B. and Lovelock C.E. (2022). Mangrove forests under climate change in a 2 °C world. WIREs Climate Change, 13(4), e792. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.792

24. Friess D.A., Rogers K., Lovelock C.E., Krauss K.W., Hamilton S.E., Lee S.Y., Lucas R., Primavera J., Rajkaran A. and Shi S. (2019). The state of the world’s mangrove forests: Past, present, and future. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 44, 89–115. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-101718-033302

25. Fu L., Chen J., Wang Z. (2024). MSFANet: multi-scale fusion attention network for mangrove remote sensing lmage segmentation using pattern recognition. J Cloud Comp, 13, 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13677-023-00565-w

26. Gunathilaka M. and Fernando S.L.J. (2022). Accuracy assessment of unsupervised land use and land cover classification using remote sensing and geographical information systems. International Journal of Environment, Engineering and Education, 4(3), 76–82. https://doi.org/10.55151/ijeedu.v4i3.73

27. Hadiyanto H., Halim M.A.R., Muhammad F., Soeprobowati T.R., Sularto. (2021). Potential for environmental services based on the estimation of reserved carbon in the mangunharjo mangrove ecosystem. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 30(4), 3545 – 3552. DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/126374

28. Halim M.A.R., Soeprobowati T.R., Hadiyanto H. (2023). Ecological Assessment of the Role of Mangrove Trees in Carbon Sequestration and Biodiversity in Karimunjawa National Park Indonesia. Geography, Environment, Sustainability. 16(3), 32-42. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2022-2565

29. Hayati A.N., Afiati N. and Helmi M. (2023). Carbon sequestration of above ground biomass approach in the rehabilitated Mangrove stand at Jepara Regency, central Java, Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan dan Kelautan, 15(1), 224.

30. Hoang H.T.T., Duong T.T., Nguyen K.T., Le Q.T.P., Luu M.T.N., Trinh D.A., Le A.H., Ho C.T., Dang K.D., Némery J., Orange D., Klein J. (2018). Impact of anthropogenic activities on water quality and plankton communities in the Day River (Red River Delta, Vietnam). Environ Monit Assess 190(2):67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6435-z

31. Howard J., Hoyt S., Isensee K., Telszewski M. and Pidgeon E. (Eds.). (2017). Coastal blue carbon: Methods for assessing carbon stocks and emissions factors in mangroves, tidal salt marshes, and seagrass meadows. Conservation International, IUCN, and UNESCO. Imasu R., Matsunaga T. and Nakajima M. (2023). Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 2 (GOSAT-2): mission overview. Prog Earth Planet Sci, 10, 33. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00562-2

32. Jiang L., Yang T. and Yu J. (2022). Global trends and prospects of blue carbon sinks: a bibliometric analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(44), 65924-65939.

33. Johnson G.C. and Lyman J.M. (2020). Warming trends increasingly dominate global ocean. Nature Climate Change, 10, 757–761. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0822-0

34. Kacprzak M.J., Ellis A., Fijałkowski K., Kupich I., Gryszpanowicz P., Greenfield E. and Nowak D. (2024). Urban forest species selection for improvement of ecological benefits in Polish cities: The actual and forecast potential. Journal of Environmental Management, 366, 121732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121732

35. Lee S.Y., Primavera J.H., Dahdouh-Guebas F., McKee K., Bosire J.O., Cannicci S., and Record S. (2014). Ecological role and services of tropical mangrove ecosystems: A reassessment. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23(7), 726–743. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12155

36. Liao J., Li G., Zhang S., Yang Y., Li Y., Dong Z., Guo Y. and Wang Z. (2025). Global warming exacerbates the risk of habitat loss for regional mangrove species. Sci Rep, 15, 19710. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-04364-y

37. Lovelock C.E., Cahoon D.R., Friess D.A., Guntenspergen G.R., Krauss K.W., Reef R., Rogers K., Saunders M.L., Sidik F., Swales A., Saintilan N., Thuyen L.X. and Triet T. (2015). The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise. Nature, 526(7574), 559–563. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15538

38. Lovelock C.E. and Duarte C.M. (2025). Out of the blue carbon box: toward investable blue natural capital. Biol. Lett, 21: 20240648. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2024.0648

39. Macreadie P.I., Costa M.D., Atwood T.B., Friess D.A., Kelleway J.J., Kennedy H., and Duarte C.M. (2021). Blue carbon as a natural climate solution. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(12), 826-839. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00224-1

40. Mahmood R., Zhang L. and Li G. (2023). Assessing effectiveness of nature-based solution with big earth data: 60 years mangrove plantation program in Bangladesh coast. Ecol Process, 12, 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-023-00419-y

41. Murdiyarso D., Arifanti V.B., Sidik F., Sillanpää M. and Sasmito S.D. (2021). Optimizing carbon stocks and sedimentation in Indonesian mangroves under different management regimes. Wetland carbon and environmental management, 159-172 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119639305.ch8

42. Murdiyarso D., Krisnawati H., Adinugroho W.C. and Sasmito S.D. (2023). Deriving emission factors for mangrove blue carbon ecosystem in Indonesia. Carbon Balance Manage, 18(12). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00233-1

43. Nguyen KA., Liou YA., Tran H.P. (2020). Soil salinity assessment by using near-infrared channel and Vegetation Soil Salinity Index derived from Landsat 8 OLI data: a case study in the Tra Vinh Province, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Prog Earth Planet Sci, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-019-0311-0

44. Nuraini R.A.T., Pringgenies D., Suryono C.A. and Adhari V.H. (2021). Stok Karbon Pada Tegakan Vegetasi Mangrove di Pulau Karimunjawa. Buletin Oseanografi Marina, 10(2), 180-188. https://doi.org/10.14710/buloma.v10i2.31616

45. Ogohara K., Takagi M., Murakami S.Y. (2017). Overview of Akatsuki data products: definition of data levels, method and accuracy of geometric correction. Earth Planets Space, 69(167). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-017-0749-5

46. Olofsson P., Foody G.M., Herold M., Stehman S.V., Woodcock C.E. and Wulder M.A. (2014). Good practices for estimating area and assessing accuracy of land change. Remote Sensing of Environment, 148, 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.02.015

47. Prihantono J., Nakamura T., Nadaoka K., Wirasatriya A. and Adi N.S. (2022). Rainfall variability and tidal inundation influences on mangrove greenness in Karimunjawa National Park, Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(14), 8948. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148948.

48. Purwanto A.D., Wikantika K., Deliar A., Darmawan S., Suprapedi, Saepuloh A. and Prayudha B. (2025). Spatial Heterogeneity of Mangrove Changes and Its Local Driving Factors on the Southern Coast of Java Island, Indonesia. Scientifica, 2025(1), 6670733. https://doi.org/10.1155/sci5/6670733

49. Raffay M., Bagheri M. and Marzuki A. (2025). Monitoring and analyzing land use changes for sustainable development in Teluk Bahang, Penang, Malaysia: a GIS-based approach. J. Eng. Appl. Sci, 72(36). https://doi.org/10.1186/s44147-025-00601-3

50. Rahim A., Soeprobowati T.R., Helmi M. and Kruszewski Ł. (2026). Spatiotemporal analysis of mangrove cover change and future projections in West Sumatra and Northern Java. Landscape and Ecological Engineering, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-026-00714-8

51. Rahim A., Soeprobowati T.R., Putranto T.T., Falah M.H., Gell P. (2024). Contribution of mangrove forest carbon stocks on climate change mitigation: a case study at Tuntang Estuary, Central Java. J Coast Conserv, 28(65). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-024-01059-w

52. Rahmajati J.P., Husna V.N., Yulius Y. (2026). The spatio-temporal analysis of land use changes & above-ground carbon stock in Sumbawa mangrove ecosystem, Indonesia. Anthropocene Coasts 9(13).. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44218-025-00116-7

53. Richards D.R., and Friess D.A. (2016). Rates and drivers of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia, 2000–2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(2), 344–349. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510272113

54. Romañach S.S., DeAngelis D.L., Koh H.L., Li Y., Teh S.Y., Barizan R.S.R. and Zhai L. (2018). Conservation and restoration of mangroves: Global status, perspectives, and prognosis. Ocean & Coastal Management, 154, 72–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.01.009

55. Sahavacharin A., Sompongchaiyakul P. and Thaitakoo D. (2022). The effects of land-based change on coastal ecosystems. Landscape and Ecological Engineering, 18(3), 351-366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-022-00505-x

56. Santosa B., Redjeki S. and Ario R. (2023). Inventarisasi Jenis Lamun Di Perairan Pulau Nyamuk Kepulauan Karimunjawa, Jawa Tengah. Journal of Marine Research, 12(1), 124-130. https://doi.org/10.14710/jmr.v12i1.34326

57. Soeprobowati T.R., Sularto R.B., Hadiyanto H., Puryono S., Rahim A., Jumari J. and Gell P. (2024). The carbon stock potential of the restored mangrove ecosystem of Pasarbanggi, Rembang, Central Java. Marine Environmental Research, 193, 106257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106257

58. Subambang R.B., Damar A., Taryono T., Kurnia R. and Bengen D.G. (2025). Optimization of institutional framework for mangrove ecosystem management in Jakarta Bay: A multi-stakeholder collaborative approach. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(8), 87–99. https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v8i8.10548

59. Suryanti S., Muskananfola M.R., Febrianto S. and A’in C. (2025). Integrated coastal management strategies to enhance biodiversity conservation in Karimunjawa National Park, Jepara, Central Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity, 26(6). https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d260643

60. Suryanti S., Muskananfola M.R., Febrianto S. and A’in C. (2025). Analysis of coastal management strategies in responding to shoreline changes in Karimunjawa and Kemujan Islands of Central Java, Indonesia. Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management, 12(3), 7509- 7521. https://doi.org/10.15243/jdmlm.2025.123.7509

61. Syahid L.N., Sakti A.D., Virtriana R., Wikantika K., Windupranata W., Tsuyuki S., Caraka R.E., Pribadi R. (2020). Determining optimal location for mangrove planting using remote sensing and climate model projection in Southeast Asia. Rem. Sens, 12, 3734. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12223734

62. Syahid L.N., Sakti A.D., Ward R., Rosleine D., Windupranata W., Wikantika K. (2023). Optimizing the spatial distribution of Southeast Asia mangrove restoration based on zonation, species and carbon projection schemes. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 293, 108477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2023.108477

63. Trihatmoko E., Nurlinda N., Darussalam A., Purwitaningsih S., Sartohadi J., Banowati E. and Aji A. (2024). Preserving coastal ecosystem through micro-zonation analysis of Karimunjawa, Indonesia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196(1), 88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12257-8

64. Try S., Tanaka S. and Tanaka K. (2020). Assessing the effects of climate change on flood inundation in the lower Mekong Basin using high-resolution AGCM outputs. Prog Earth Planet Sci, 7, 34. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00353-z

65. West G.J., Gibson P.T. and Glasby T.M. (2025). Monitoring Estuarine Habitats and Threats at a Regional Scale Using Aerial Photography, Object-Based Image Analysis and Deep Learning. Wetlands, 45, 44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-025-01925-9

66. Wirasatriya A., Pribadi R., Iryanthony S.B., Maslukah L., Sugianto D.N., Helmi M., Ananta R.R., Adi N.S., Kepel T.L., Ati R.N.A., Kusumaningtyas M.A., Suwa R., Ray R., Nakamura T. and Nadaoka K. (2022). Mangrove above-ground biomass and carbon stock in the Karimunjawa-Kemujan Islands estimated from unmanned aerial vehicle-imagery. Sustainability, 14(2), 706. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020706

67. Zhao B., Dai Z., Xiong Y., Long C., Mei X. and Cheng J. (2026). From degradation to conservation: Tracking mangrove dynamic changes of Hainan Island in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 405, 129639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129639

68. Zimba H.M., Banda K.E., and Mbewe S. (2024). Integrated use of the CA–Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation. Environ Syst Res, 13, 25. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-024-00355-6