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ATMOSPHERIC MODELING FOR ADVANCE WARNING OF WEATHER DISASTERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2013-6-4-31-47

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Abstract

Means for operational regional forecast of catastrophic weather events in the Black Sea region are presented. It is shown that the flooding in Krasnodar Region, Russia, July 7, 2012 was predicted five days before the tragic events, and the catastrophic storm of November 11, 2007 off the coast of Crimea was also predicted three days in advance. Quality of the regional forecast and its advantages over the global forecast are discussed. The operational regional modeling of the atmosphere in the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) could become an important element of a possible early warning system for weather disasters in the Azov-Black Sea region.

About the Authors

Vitaliy Ivanov

Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine


Mikhail Shokurov

Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine


Vladimir Dulov

Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine


Vladimir Kudryavtsev

Russian Federation
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Sevastopol, Ukraine
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation


Takvor Soukissian

Greece
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Athens, Greece


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For citation:


Ivanov V., Shokurov M., Dulov V., Kudryavtsev V., Soukissian T. ATMOSPHERIC MODELING FOR ADVANCE WARNING OF WEATHER DISASTERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2013;6(4):31-47. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2013-6-4-31-47

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