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The paper describes a study that monitored the epidemiological situation of a complex of natural-focal diseases in the Vladimir region (Russia), from 1958 to 2012. The morbidity rates of these natural-focal diseases have been differentiated by territory using ArcView 3.1 (GIS software). The activity of natural foci for each zooanthroponosis varied between administrative districts in the region. A schematic map has been compiled; the map reflects
the danger of infection caused by natural-focal diseases in the Vladimir region. The paper
discusses the role of the anthropogenic factor in natural-ecosystem development: it likely
promotes the transit and localization rates of carriers. Correlation and regression analysis of
the data showed that climatic factors such as the average temperatures in July and September in the preceding year influence Lyme disease (Lyme borreliosis) patterns. This is likely related to particular stages in the life cycle of Ixodidae ticks. Using multiple linear regression analysis, a mathematical model for the prediction of Lyme borreliosis patterns has been created.

About the Authors

Tatiana A. Trifonova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Soil Science

Anton A. Martsev

Russian Federation
A.G. and N.G. Stoletov Vladimir State University


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ISSN 2071-9388 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1565 (Online)