SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-4-95-117
Abstract
Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river
mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.
mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.
About the Authors
Stepan P. Zemtsov
Institute of applied economic research, the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vyacheslav L. Baburin
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Klaus P. Koltermann
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Inna N. Krylenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Natalia M. Yumina
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Vladimir Yu. Litvinov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography
References
1. Baburin, V., Kasimov, N. and Goryachko, M. (2009). Development of the Black Sea Coast of Caucasus in the Conditions of Changes of the Nature and Society. Proceedings of the 9th international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment. Sochi.
2. Birkmann, J. (2007). Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environmental Hazards, N 7(1), pp. 20–31.
3. Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreno, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S. & elle, T. 2013. Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural hazards, N 67(2), pp. 193–211.
4. D amm, M. (2010). Mapping Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Flooding. A Sub-National Approach for Germany. Graduate Research Series vol. 3. UNU-EHS. Bonn.
5. EME RCOM . (2007). The Method for Determining of the Damage that Can Affect Life and Health of Persons, Property of People and Entities as a Result of Shipping Waterworks Accident. Moscow. (in Russian).
6. Fuchs, S., Birkmann, J. and Glade, T. (2012). Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges. Natural Hazards, N 1–7.
7. Fuchs, S., Kuhlicke C., and Meyer, V. (2011). Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration. Natural Hazards, N 58(2), pp. 609–619.
8. Gladkevich, G, Frolova, N. and Terskiy, P. (2011). Complex Multifactorial Risk Assessment of Flooding in Russia. In The Resources and quality of surface waters: evaluation, prognosis and management. Moscow. (in Russian).
9. Guriev, S. (2009). Myths of Economics. Moscow: Alpina Business Books. (in Russian).
10. M iagkov, S. (1995). Geography of natural risk. Moscow. MSU. 224 p. (in Russian).
11. M inistry of Finance. (2011). Calculation of the distribution of subventions from the federal compensation fund in 2011 in the field of water relations between the subjects of the Russian Federation. Moscow. (in Russian).
12. M rozek, J. R. and Taylor, L. O. (2002). What determines the value of life? A meta-analysis. journal of policy analysis and management, n 21(2), pp. 253–270.
13. P etrova, E. (2006). Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, N 6(6).
14. Russian Federal Sate statistical service. (2012). Database of municipalities. (in Russian)URL: http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/munst/munst.htm
15. S hoygu, S., Bolov, V., Komedchikov, N. and Trokhina, N. (Ed.). (2010). Atlas of natural and technological hazards and risks of emergencies in the Russian Federation. Moscow. Design. Information. Cartography. 696 p. (in Russian).
16. T aratunin, A. (2008). Floods in the Russian Federation. Yekaterinburg: FSUE RosNIIVH. 432 p. (in Russian).
17. V iscusi, W. K., Aldy, J. E. (2003). The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world. Journal of risk and uncertainty, N 27(1), pp. 5–76.
18. W orld Risk Report. (2011). Bundnis Entwicklung Hilft. Bonn.
19. Zemtsov, S., Kidyaeva, V. and Fadeev, M. (2013). Socio-economic risk assessment of flooding for Russian coastal regions. In ERSA conference papers (No. ersa13p1271). European Regional Science Association.
20. Zemtsov, S., Krylenko, I. and Yumina, N. (2012). Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in Coastal Areas of the Azov-Black Sea Coast in the Krasnodar. In Koltermann K.P., Dobrolyubov, S.A. (Ed.). The Environmental and social risks in the coastal zone of the Black Sea and Azov Sea. Moscow: Publishing House of Triumph. (in Russian).
Review
For citations:
Zemtsov S.P., Baburin V.L., Koltermann K.P., Krylenko I.N., Yumina N.M., Litvinov V.Yu. SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2014;7(4):95-117. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-4-95-117
Views:
1122
Email this article 