MULTI-ARCHIVE TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC FOR THE PAST TWO MILLENNIA
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-1-16-29
Abstract
We present a multi-archival mean annual quantitative temperature reconstruction for Northeastern Europe covering the period of the past two millennia based on tree-ring, pollen, and historical data. This reconstruction was developed primarily to build up a comparative chronology of climatic and historical events in the study region. Five different calibration and verification approaches were used. A comparison of mean decadal temperature reconstruction for Northeastern Europe with those for larger regions and the Hemisphere shows that larger climatic events were visible both in the whole Northern Hemisphere and its separate regions. Less significant climatic events on a regional level may differ considerably from the overall climate signature on the hemispheric level. Highest pre-industrial mean annual temperatures in AD 981-990 were 1,0°C warmer and lowest in AD 1811-1820 were 1,3°C colder than average in AD 1951-1980. The new reconstruction shows much higher degree of variability as compared to Panarctic and hemispheric reconstructions.
About the Authors
Vladimir Klimenko
Moscow Power Engineering Institute, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir Matskovsky
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dittmar Dahlmann
Rhenish Friedrich-Wilhelm University, Bonn, Germany
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Aimers J., Hodell D. (2011) Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. // Nature. Vol. 479. No. 7371. P. 44-45.
2. Andreev A.A., Klimanov V.A. (2000) Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstruction from Arctic Russia. // J. Paleolimnol., Vol. 24. No. 1. P. 81-91.
3. Bekryaev R.V., Polyakov I.V., Alexeev V.A. (2010) Role of polar amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming. // J. Climate. Vol. 23. No. 14. P. 3888-3906.
4. Buntgen U., Tegel W., Nicolussi K., McCormick M., Frank D., Trouet V., Kaplan J.O., Herzig F., Heussner K.-U., Wanner H., Luterbacher J., Esper J. (2011) 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. // Science. Vol. 331. No. 6017. P. 578-582.
5. Cook E.R., D’Arrigo R.D., Mann M.E. (2002) A well-verified, multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index since A.D. 1400 // J. of Climate. Vol. 15. No. 13. P. 1754-1764.
6. Crespin E., Goosse H., Fichefet T. and Mann M.E. (2009) The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation // Climates of the Past. Vol. 5. No. 3. P. 389-401.
7. Esper J., Cook E.R., Schweingruber F.H. (2002) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. // Science. Vol. 295. No. 5563. P. 2250-2253.
8. Fyodorov M.V., Klimenko V.V. and Dovgalyuk V.V. (1996) Sunspot minima dates: A secular forecast // Solar Physics. Vol. 165. No. 1. P. 193-199.
9. Gurskaya M., Hallinger M., Singh J., Agafonov L., Wilmking M. (2012) Temperature reconstruction in the Ob River valley based on ring widths of three coniferous tree species // Dendrochronologia. Vol. 30. No. 4. P. 302-309.
10. Hantemirov R.M., Shiyatov S.G. (2002) A continuous multimillennial ring-width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia. // The Holocene. Vol. 12. No. 6. P. 717-726.
11. Jones P.D., Briffa K.R., Osborn T.J., Lough J.M., van Ommen T.D., Vinther B.M., Luterbacher J., Wahl E.R., Zwiers F.W., Mann M.E., Schmidt G.A., Ammann C.M., Buckley B.M., Cobb K.M., Esper J., Goosse H., Graham N., Jansen E., Kiefer T., Kull C., Küttel M., Mosley-Thompson E., Overpeck J.T., Riedwyl N., Schulz M., Tudhope A.W., Villalba R., Wanner H., Wolff E., Xoplaki E. (2009) High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects. // The Holocene. Vol. 19. No. 1. P. 3-49.
12. Kaufman D.S., Schneider D.P., McKay N.P., Ammann C.M., Bradley R.S., Briffa K.R., Miller G.H., Otto-Bliesner B.L., Overpeck J.T., Vinther B.M., Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members (2009) Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. // Science. Vol. 325. No. 5945. P. 1236-1239.
13. Klimanov V.A., Khotinsky N.A., Blagoveschenskaya N.V. (1995) Variations of climate of the Russian Plain during the historical period // Izvestia RAN. Ser. geogr. No. 1. P. 89-96 (in Russian).
14. Klimenko V.V. (1997) On major climatic cycles of Holocene. // Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences / Earth Science Sections. 1997. Vol. 357A, No. 9. P. 1339-1342 (in Russian).
15. Klimenko V.V. (2009) Climate: Lost Chapter of the World History. Moscow: MEI Publ (in Russian).
16. Klimenko V.V. (2010) A Composite Reconstruction of the Russian Arctic Climate Back to A.D. 1435. // In: The Polish Climate in the European Context: An Historical Overview. Eds. Przybylak, R., Majorowicz, J., Brбzdil R., Kejna M., Berlin: Springer. Chapter 3. P. 295-326.
17. Klimenko V.V. (2011) Why Is Global Warming Slowing Down? // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2011. Vol. 440. Part 2. P. 1419-1422 (in Russian).
18. Klimenko V.V., Matskovsky V.V., Pakhomova L.Yu. (2012) High latitudes climate variations and pioneering of Northeastern Europe in the Middle Ages // History and Modernity. No. 2. P. 130-163 (in Russian).
19. Klimenko V.V., Sleptsov A.M. (2003) Complex reconstruction of climate of East Europe over the last 2,000 years. // Izvestia RGO. No. 6. P. 45-53 (in Russian).
20. Lee T.C.K., Zwiers F.C. and Tsao M. (2008) Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods // Clim. Dyn. Vol. 31. No. 2-3. P. 263-281.
21. Ljungqvist F.C. (2010) A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. // Geogr. Ann. Vol. 92A. No. 3. P. 339-351.
22. Miller G.H., Alley R.B., Brigham-Grette J., Fitzpatrick J.J., Polyak L., Serreze M.C., White J.W.C. (2010) Arctic amplification: can the past constrain the future? // Quaternary Science Reviews. Vol. 29. No. 15-16. P. 1779-1790.
23. Moberg A., Sonechkin D.M., Holmgren K., Datsenko N.M., Karlen W. (2005) Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. // Nature. Vol. 433. No. 7026. P. 613-617.
24. Naurzbaev M.M., Vaganov E.A., Sidorova O.V., Schweingruber F.H. (2002) Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene tree-ring chronology and earlier floating series. // The Holocene. Vol. 12. No. 6. P. 727-736.
25. Peterson T.C., Vose R.S. (1997) An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78. No. 12. P. 2837-2849.
26. Reimer P.J., Baillie M.G.L., Bard E., Bayliss A., Beck J.W., Blackwell P.G., Bronk Ramsey C., Buck C.E., Burr G.S., Edwards R.L., Friedrich M., Grootes P.M., Guilderson T.P., Hajdas I., Heaton T.J., Hogg A.G., Hughen K.A., Kaiser K.F., Kromer B., McCormac F.G., Manning S.W., Reimer R.W., Richards D.A., Southon J.R., Talamo S., Turney C.S.M., van der Plicht J., Weyhenmeyer C.E. (2009) IntCal09 and Marine09 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves, 0-50,000 Years cal BP. // Radiocarbon. Vol. 51. No. 4. P. 1111-1150.
27. Shindell D.T., Schmidt G.A., Mann M.E., Faluvegi G. (2004) Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600 // J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 109. No. D05104. doi:10.1029/2003JD004151.
28. Trenberth K.E. (1976) Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation // Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc. Vol. 102. No. 433. P. 639-653.
29. Velichko, A.A., Andreev A.A., Klimanov V.A. (1997) Climate and vegetation dynamics in the tundra and forest zone during the Late Glacial and Holocene. // Quaternary Int. Vol. 41/42. P. 71-96.
30. Wanner H., Beer J., Butikofer J., Crowley T.J., Cubasch U., Fluckiger J., Goosse H., Grosjean M., Joos F., Kaplan J.O., Kuttel M., Muller S.A., Prentice I.C., Solomina O., Stocker T.F., Tarasov P., Wagner M., Widmann M. (2008) Mid- to Late Holocene climate change: an overview. // Quaternary Science Reviews. Vol. 27. No. 19-20. P. 1791-1828.
31. Winton M. (2006) Amplified Arctic climate change: What does surface albedo feedback have to do with it? // Geophys. Res. Lett. Vol. 33. L03701. doi:10.1029/2005GL025244
32. Yamanouchi T. (2011) Early 20th century warming in the Arctic: A review. // Polar Science. Vol. 5. No. 1. P. 53-71.
Review
For citations:
Klimenko V., Matskovsky V., Dahlmann D. MULTI-ARCHIVE TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC FOR THE PAST TWO MILLENNIA. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2014;7(1):16-29. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-1-16-29
Views: 909
Email this article 