Projection Of Regional Climate Change For 2023–2064 In The Northern Part Of The Western Russian Arctic: A Support For Russian Railways
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-4179
Abstract
Observed climate change has significantly impacted land transportation infrastructure, including roads, railways, bridges, seaport facilities, runways, and other components. It also affects traffic management and the efficiency of the transport system, influencing maintenance costs, travel safety, and traffic flow speeds. This issue is particularly critical for the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), which is undergoing rapid economic development. Despite its expanding technological infrastructure, the region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A comprehensive assessment of these environmental risks is essential to ensure sustainable regional growth. Observed and projected changes in temperature and humidity generally have adverse effects on the condition and operation of transportation infrastructure. The primary types of negative impacts linked to climate change have already emerged, and these trends are expected to intensify by the mid-21st century. This paper analyses projected climate change in the Western Russian Arctic for 2023–2064. Using the CNRM-CM6-1-HR model from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), it evaluates three socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results are compiled in an electronic atlas mapping the projected distribution of air and soil temperature, total precipitation, wind speed, and snow cover thickness. Analysis of projection revealed non-linear climate model variations, where parameter values can overlap across scenarios and change rates can be unexpectedly higher in optimistic pathways. These projections, assessed against a 1980–1989 baseline, were visualised in regional maps to detail hydrometeorological changes for 2023–2064. This analysis of regional climate change is vital for sustainably managing railway infrastructure. The results highlight a heterogeneous Arctic climate and identify potentially hazardous phenomena expected to increase in frequency and impact.
Keywords
Arctic zone of the Russian Federation,
climate change projection,
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,
geoinformation analysis,
Russian Railways
Supporting agencies: This work was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 21-77-30010-P) titled ‘System analysis of geophysical process dynamics in the Russian Arctic and their impact on the development and operation of the railway infrastructure’.
About the Authors
Andrey G. Kostianoy
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences; S.Yu. Witte Moscow University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Nakhimovskiy Ave, 36, Moscow, 117218
2nd Kozhukhovskiy Proyezd, 12, Moscow, 115432
Alexey D. Gvishiani
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Bolshaya Gruzinskaya St, 10, Moscow, 123242
Sergey A. Lebedev
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Igor N. Rozenberg
Russian University of Transport
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Obraztsova St, 9, Bldg 9, Moscow, 127055
Roman I. Krasnoperov
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Irina A. Dubchak
Russian University of Transport
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Obraztsova St, 9, Bldg 9, Moscow, 127055
Sofia A. Gvozdik
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Piazza della Scienza, 4, Milano, 20126, Italy
Olga O. Shevaldysheva
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Vladimir N. Sergeev
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
Julia I. Nikolova
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Molodezhnaya Ulitsa, 3, Moscow, 119296
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For citations:
Kostianoy A.G., Gvishiani A.D., Lebedev S.A., Rozenberg I.N., Krasnoperov R.I., Dubchak I.A., Gvozdik S.A., Shevaldysheva O.O., Sergeev V.N., Nikolova J.I. Projection Of Regional Climate Change For 2023–2064 In The Northern Part Of The Western Russian Arctic: A Support For Russian Railways. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2025;18(4):61-79. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-4179
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