EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION
Abstract
The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.
About the Authors
Sergey V. Berdnikov
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
D.Sc. in Geography, Vice-Chairman of the Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences.Rostov-on-Don
Russian Federation
D.Sc. in Geography, Vice-Chairman of the Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences.Rostov-on-Don
Liudmila V. Dashkevich
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostov-on-Don
Valerii V. Kulygin
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostov-on-Don
Igor V. Sheverdyaev
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostov-on-Don
I. A. Tretyakova
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostov-on-Don
Natalia A. Yaitskaya
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostov-on-Don
References
1. Alekseevskii N.I., Krylenko I.N., Belikov V.V., Kochetkov V.V., and Norin S.V. (2014). Numerial Hydrodynamic Modeling of Inundation in Krymsk on 6–7 July 2012. Power Technology and Engineering. 48(3). pp. 179-186.
2. Berdnikov S.V. (2006). Simulation of large-scale changes in oceanographic characteristics of the Sea of Azov ecosystem. In: Regularities of ecosystem processes in the Sea of Azov. Moscow: Nauka. pp. 137–229 (in Russian).
3. Borsch S.V., Simonov Yu.A., and Khristoforov A.V. (2015). Flood forecasting and early warning system for floods on the rivers of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus and the Kuban basin. Proceedings of Hydrometcentre of Russia. 356. pp. 248 (in Russian).
4. Chikin A.L. (2009). The two-layer mathematical model of the wind currents in the basin with different level of deep. Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations. 21(12). pp. 152–160.
5. Dashkevich L.V., Nemtseva L.D., and Berdnikov S.V. (2016). Assessment of the Sea of Azov ice cover in the XXI century using Terra/Aqua MODIS images and numerical modeling. Current problems in remote sensing of the Earth from space. 13(5). pp. 91-100. DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2016-13-5-91-100 (in Russian with English summary).
6. Datsyuk V.N., Krukier L.A., Chikin A.L., and Chikina L.G. (2014). Modeling of extreme flooding in the Don delta on multiprocessor computer systems. Bulletin of the South Ural State University Series Computational Mathematics and Software Engineering. 3(1). pp. 254 – 261 (in Russian).
7. Dumanskaya I.O. (2013). Method of long-term forecast of ice conditions on the White and Azov Seas, based on the use of statistical modeling. Results of testing new and improved technologies for hydrometeorological forecast models and methods. 40. pp. 41-63 (in Russian).
8. EC (2011). Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. European Commission Commission staff working paper, European Union.
9. Fomin V.V., Lazorenko D.I., Alekseev D.V., and Polozok A.A. (2015). Storm surges in the Taganrog Bay and the flooding of the Don delta. Ecological safety of coastal and shelf zone of the sea. 1. pp. 74-82 (in Russian).
10. Hydrometeorological conditions of the shelf zone of the seas of USSR. Book 3. Sea of Azov. (1986). Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 218 p. (in Russian).
11. Gitelson A.A., Bo-Cai G., Rong-Rong L., Berdnikov S., and Saprygin V. (2011). Estimation of chlorophyll-a concentration in productive turbid waters using a Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean - the Azov Sea case study. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2). DOI: 10.1088/17489326/6/2/024023.
12. Hall D.K. (2014). Normalized-Difference Snow Index (NDSI). In: D.K. Hall, G.A. Riggs eds. Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers. Springer, pp. 779–780.
13. Ivanov V.A., Fomin V.V., Cherkesov L.V., and Shul’ga T.Ya. (2008). Modeling of fluctuations in the level of the Sea of Azov caused by wind. Physical Oceanography. 6. pp. 53-65.
14. Ivlieva O.V., and Berdnikov S.V. (2005). Recent destruction rates of the Azov beaches in Russia. Geomorphology RAS. (4), pp. 74-83. DOI:10.15356/0435-4281-2005-4-74-83.
15. Kappes M.S., Keiler M., Von Elverfeldt K., and Glade T. (2012). Challenges of analyzing multihazard risk: a review. Natural Hazards. 64(2). pp. 1925–1958.
16. Krukier L.A., Chikin A.L., Chikina L.G., and Shabas I.N. (2009). Modeling of hydrophysical processes in water bodies with large shallow water areas. SFU Publishers: Rostov-on-Don. 244 p. (in Russian).
17. Kulygin V.V. (2017). Method for estimation of the multi-hazard interactions. Georisk. (2), pp. 30-37 (in Russian with English summary).
18. Kulygin V.V., and Berdnikov S.V. (2013). Model estimates of pollution of the marine environment and coastal areas in emergency situations at sea oil and gas and transportation of petroleum hydrocarbons. In: E.P. Istomin, V.E. Marley, I.P. Skobeleva, I.A. Sobol (Eds.). Information technology and systems: management, economics, law. St. Petersburg: St. Andrew Publishing House, pp. 112-114 (in Russian).
19. Kulygin V., Berdnikov S., Selyutin V., and Dashkevich L. (2016). Oxygen depletion risk assessment in shallow water bodies of the Sea of Azov region. SGEM2016 Conference Proceedings. 3(2), pp. 799-806. DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B32/S15.104.
20. Kushnir V.M., Dushko V.R., and Kramar’ V.A. (2013). The effect of surface gravity waves on coastal technical structures. Eastern European Journal of Advanced Technology. 5(66), pp. 36-41 (in Russian).
21. Matishov G.G., and Kovaleva G.V. (2010). Algal bloom in reservoirs of the south of Russia and water supply malfunctions (by the example of the city of Volgodonsk). Vestnik SSC RAS. 6(1), pp. 71-79 (in Russian).
22. Matishov G.G., Kleshchenkov A.V., and Sheverdyaev I.V. (2012). Results of field investigations in the freshet and flood area in the Western Caucasus (July 2012). Vestnik SSC RAS. 8(4), pp. 101-104 (in Russian).
23. Matishov G.G., Savitskii R.M., and Inzhebeikin Y.I. (2013). The environmental and biotic impact of the oil spill in Kerch Strait in November 2007. Water Resources. 40(3), pp. 271-284.
24. Matishov G.G., Berdnikov S.V., Zhichkin A.P., Dzhenyuk S.L., Smolyar I.V., Kulygin V.V., Yaitskaya N.A., Povazhniy V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Kumpan S.V., Tretyakova I.A., Tsygankova A.E., D’yakov N.N., Fomin V.V., Klochkov D.N., Shatohin B.M., Plotnikov V.V., Vakulskaya N.M., Luchin V.A., and Kruts A.A., (2014a). Atlas of Climatic Changes in Nine Large Marine Ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere (1827-2013). NOAA Atlas NESDIS 78. 131 pp. doi:10.7289/V5Q52MK5.
25. Matishov G.G., Chikin A.L., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., and Chikina L.G. (2014b). The ice regime of the Sea of Azov and climate in the early 21st century. Doklady earth sciences. 457(2), pp. 1020-1024.
26. Matishov G.G., Kleshchenkov A.V., and Sheverdyaev I.V. (2014c). Disastrous flashflood in the Western Caucasus in July 2012: causes and consequences. Geoecology, engineering geology, hydrogeology, geocryology. 4, pp. 291-303 (in Russian).
27. Matishov G.G., and Berdnikov S.V (2015). Extreme flooding of the Don River delta in spring 2013. Izvestiya RAN. Seriya geograficheskaya. 1, pp. 111-118 (in Russian with English summary).
28. Moses W.J., Gitelson A.A., Berdnikov S., and Povazhnyy V. (2009). Satellite estimation of chlorophyll-a concentration using the red and NIR bands of MERIS—The Azov Sea case study. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett. 6(4), pp. 845–849.
29. Moses W.J., Gitelson A.A., Berdnikov S., Saprygin V., and Povazhnyi V. (2012). Operational MERIS-based NIR-red algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a concentrations in coastal waters - The Azov Sea case study. Remote Sensing of Environment. 121, pp. 118-124.
30. Moses W.J., Gitelson A.A., Berdnikov S., Bowles J.H., Povazhnyi V., Saprygin V., Wagner E.J., and Patterson K.W. (2014). HICO-Based NIR–Red Models for Estimating Chlorophyll-«a» Concentration in Productive Coastal Waters. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters. 11(6), pp. 1116-1120. DOI: 10.1109/LGRS.2013.2287791.
31. Oil spill accident in the Kerch Strait in November 2007 (2011). Edited by Alexander Korshenko, Yuriy Ilyin, Violeta Velikova. Black Sea Commission Publications. Moscow: Nauka, 288 p.
32. Popov S.K., and Lobov A.L. (2016). The diagnosis and forecast of the flood in Taganrog according to the operational hydrodynamic model. Proceedings of Hydrometcentre of Russia. 362. pp. 92-108 (in Russian with English summary).
33. Popov S.K., and Lobov A.L. (2017). Modeling of sea level changes in the Sea of Azov in 2015-2016. Proceedings of Hydrometcentre of Russia. 364. pp. 131-143 (in Russian with English summary).
34. Selyutin V.V., Berdnikov S.V., and Kulygin V.V. (2009). Comparative analysis of water-use scenarios for lower don water management system. Water Resources. 36(2), pp. 225-237.
35. Sukhinov A.I., Chistyakov A.E., and Alekseenko E.V. (2011). Numerical realization of the threedimensional model of hydrodynamics for shallow water reservoirs on a supercomputer system. Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations. 23(3). pp. 3–21.
36. Tikhonova O.V., Zil’bershteyn O.I., and Safronov G.F. (1995). Hydrodynamic modeling of storm surges in the Sea of Azov. Proceedings of N.N. Zubov State Oceanographic Institute. 2. pp. 215-223 (in Russian).
37. Tretyakova I., and Yaitskaya N. (2015). Methods for assessing dangerous storm and surge phenomena in the basin and coastal zone of the Sea of Azov. In: Berdnikov S.V., Yaitskaya N.A. (Eds.), Geographic information technologies and prediction of extreme events. Collection of articles of the III International Conference (September 5-12, 24-28, 2015, Durso – Rostov-on-Don, Russia). Publishing house SSC RAS, pp.101-122.
38. Tretyakova I.A., Chikin A.L., and Berdnikov S.V. (2016). Experience in operational forecasting of sea surges in the delta of the Don River in the warm period (April-October) 2015. In: Environment and a Human Being. Current problems of genetics, selection and biotechnologies: Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference (Rostov-on-Don, Russia, 5-8 September 2016). Rostov-on-Don: SSC RAS Publishers, pp. 473-475 (in Russian).
39. UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2009). Terminology: Basic Terms of Disaster Risk Reduction. [online] Available at: http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology [Accessed 10 Sep. 2017].
40. Van Westen C.J., and Greiving S. (2017). Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management. In: N.R. Dalezios ed., Envionrmental hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management. International Water Institute (IWA) publishing, pp. 33-92.
41. Yaitskaya N., and Tretyakova I. (2016). Mathematical modeling of dangerous storm and surge phenomena in the basin of the Sea of Azov (March 24, 2013). SGEM 2016 Conference Proceedings. 3(1), pp. 481-488. DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2016/B31/S12.063.
42. Yaitskaya N. (2017). The results of hindcasting experiments of wind wave in the Sea of Azov (as illustrated by winters 2015-2017). Science in the South Russia. 13(4), pp. 60-70. DOI: 10.23885/2500-0640-2017-3-4-60-70 (in Russian with English summary).
43. Zelen’ko A.A., Strukov B.S., Resnyanskiy Yu.D., and Martynov S.L. (2014). System for predicting wind waves in the World Ocean and the seas of Russia. Proceedings of N.N. Zubov State Oceanographic Institute. 215. pp. 90–101 (in Russian with English summary).
Review
For citations:
Berdnikov S.V., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Tretyakova I.A., Yaitskaya N.A. EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2018;11(2):29-45. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45
Views: 698
Email this article 