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EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION

https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45

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Abstract

The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.

About the Authors

Sergey V. Berdnikov
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
D.Sc. in Geography, Vice-Chairman of the Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences.Rostov-on-Don 


Liudmila V. Dashkevich
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Rostov-on-Don



Valerii V. Kulygin
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Rostov-on-Don



Igor V. Sheverdyaev
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Rostov-on-Don



I. A. Tretyakova
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Rostov-on-Don



Natalia A. Yaitskaya
Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Rostov-on-Don



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For citation:


Berdnikov S.V., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Tretyakova I.A., Yaitskaya N.A. EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2018;11(2):29-45. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45

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