History Versus Aspirations: Carbon Neutrality Postponed By Several Decades
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-4059
Abstract
Here, we use modeling and literature assessments to quantify the prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by nine major developing economies (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Mexico, and South Africa). We examine the structure of energy consumption, electricity generation, and land use in these countries. Scenario estimates of the dynamics of carbon indicators of the world’s leading economies at global and subglobal scales based on a historical approach have been developed.
It is shown that the current rate of decarbonization and the development of the carbon capture and storage industry in the studied countries is not sufficient for these countries to fulfill their obligations to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050-2070 – this goal cannot be attained before the end of the century. The key challenge in achieving the carbon neutrality is the rapid, large-scale deployment of the carbon capture and storage technologies in all possible forms. Of the countries studied, however, only China and Brazil have their capabilities to store carbon for more than a century.
Although climate change occupies practically a leading place in the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from the declared ones, and the climate warming can no longer be kept within 1.5°C. The core problem is to minimize the residence time for the global climate system in the dangerous zone (with a temperature overshoot above 1.5°C), which will require the emergence of the world economy with negative greenhouse gas emissions.
About the Authors
Vladimir V. Klimenko
National Research University «Moscow Power Engineering Institute»; University of Science and Technology MISIS; Energy Research Institute of RAS; Institute of Geography of RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Krasnokazarmennaya St. 14, build. 1, Moscow, 111250;
Leninskiy prospekt 4, Moscow, 119049;
Nagornaya St. 31, build. 2, Moscow, 117186;
Staromonetniy lane 29, Moscow, 119017
Alexey G. Tereshin
National Research University «Moscow Power Engineering Institute»; University of Science and Technology MISIS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Krasnokazarmennaya St. 14, build. 1, Moscow, 111250;
Leninskiy prospekt 4, Moscow, 119049
Olga V. Mikushina
Energy Research Institute of RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nagornaya St. 31, build. 2, Moscow, 117186
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Review
For citations:
Klimenko V.V., Tereshin A.G., Mikushina O.V. History Versus Aspirations: Carbon Neutrality Postponed By Several Decades. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2025-4059
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