Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitations
https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2024-3723
Abstract
STREAM_2D software package was applied for retrospective and predictive simulations of the Lena River hydraulic and channel changes during ice-free period near the city of Yakutsk. The modelling results indicate significant correspondence of simulated water discharges distribution and water levels with observed one, the model also has captured main erosion and accumulation zones, according to the 2009–2016 years observations. Runoff hydrographs of the ECOMAG runoff model simulations based on the global climate model MIROC-ESM-CHEM data were used as input for the hydrodynamic model with daily time step for two climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
Comparison of scenario, based on modern hydrographs, and two scenarios, based on climate projections, have shown the changes in the range of channel-forming discharges and their duration. According to the results of 20-year simulation of channel evolution for three scenarios, the position of the main areas of erosion and deposition under scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 retained the same as under actual scenario, but some additional new local areas of erosion can be formed during peak flows near the banks. Erosion can increase by up to 1 - 2 meters and even more in some areas, but the shifting of some large erosion-accumulative forms is slower than according to the scenario, based on the modern hydrographs, due to the reduced duration of channel-forming flood discharges.
Supporting agencies: The authors are grateful to the participants of fieldwork, including the team of the Makkaveev laboratory of Soil Erosion and Fluvial Processes of the geographical faculty of Moscow State University. The authors express their gratitude to the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for scientific and information assistance in conducting research. The study was carried out under the Governmental Order to the Water Problems Institute of RAS, subject FMWZ-2022-0001 (flow dynamic estimation) and under the state assignment of Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University part 1.10, CITIS 121051100166-4 (bathymetric survey), 121051400038-1 (Lena river regime data collection), the part of research, concerning Lena runoff modeling was supported by RSF project №24-17-00084, transport of sediments was analyzed with support by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russian Federation under the Agreement 075-15-2024-614, date 13.06.2024.
About the Authors
Inna N. Krylenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography ; Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119991 ; Moscow, 119333
Ekaterina D. Pavlyukevich (Kornilova)
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography ; Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119991 ; Moscow, 119333
Aleksandr S. Zavadskii
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119991
Pavel P. Golovlyov
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119991
Eugenia A. Fingert
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119991
Natalya M. Borisova
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119333
Vitaly V. Belikov
Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow, 119333
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Review
For citations:
Krylenko I.N., Pavlyukevich (Kornilova) E.D., Zavadskii A.S., Golovlyov P.P., Fingert E.A., Borisova N.M., Belikov V.V. Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitations. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2024;17(4):112-120. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2024-3723
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