MODERN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE REGIME OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC RIVERS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURE
Abstract
Changes in rivers ice regime features and the climatic resources of the winter period were examined for the territory of Russia northward from 60° N. Datasets from 220 gauging stations for the period from 1960 to 2014 have been used in the study both with the results of numerical experiments carried out using climate models in the framework of the international project CMIP5. A change in the duration of the ice phenomena period, the ice cover period and the maximum thickness of ice on the rivers for the scenario RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century for a spatial grid with a distance between the nodes of 1.75x1.75 degrees in latitude and longitude has been estimated. We elaborated series of the maps. Main features of the ice regime changes are consistent with the expected changes in the duration of the cold season and the accumulated negative air temperatures. The significant changes are expected for the rivers of the Kola Peninsula and the lower reaches of the rivers Northern Dvina and Pechora, whereas the lowest changes - for the center of Eastern Siberia.
About the Authors
S. A. Agafonova
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Researcher at the Department of Hydrology
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Researcher at the Department of Hydrology
N. A. Frolova
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Professor of Hydrology
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Professor of Hydrology
G. V. Surkova
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
Russian Federation
Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography
K. P. Koltermann
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
Russian Federation
Leading Scientist of the Natural Risk assessment laboratory at the Faculty of Geography
Russian Federation
Leading Scientist of the Natural Risk assessment laboratory at the Faculty of Geography
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Review
For citations:
Agafonova S.A., Frolova N.A., Surkova G.V., Koltermann K.P. MODERN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE REGIME OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC RIVERS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURE. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2017;10(4):4-15. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-4-4-15
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