FORECASTED TRENDS IN CHANGES OF VEGETATION IN THE EUROPEAN PART OF RUSSIA IN CONNECTION WITH GLOBAL WARMING
Abstract
The paper discusses connections between zonal boundaries of vegetation and productivity of forest stands and some climatic parameters. It also suggests mathematical-cartographic models of these connections. The models are used to forecast changes in the boundaries of the vegetation sub-zones and of forest stands productivity in the European Part of Russia and on the adjacent areas for 2046–2065 under one of the scenarios of global warming.
About the Authors
Vadim RumyantsevRussian Federation
Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leninskiye Gory, 1, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Svetlana Malkhazova
Russian Federation
Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leninskiye Gory, 1, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Mikhail Soldatov
Russian Federation
Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leninskiye Gory, 1, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Nadezhda Leonova
Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leninskiye Gory, 1, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander Kislov
Russian Federation
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leninskiye Gory, 1, 119234, Moscow, Russia
References
1. Alekseev V.A., Markov M.V. (2003). The Forest Fund statistics and the change of forest
2. productivity in Russia in the second half of the twentieth century. St-Pb.: Saint-Petersburg
3. Forest Ecology Center. 272 p. (In Russian).
4. Bathiany S., Claussen M., Brovkin V., Raddatz T., Gayler V. (2010). Combined biogeophysical
5. and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in MPI earth system
6. model. Biogeosciences Discuss., 7, pp. 387–428. (http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.
7. net/7/387/2010/).
8. Budyko M.I., Ronov A.B., Yanshin A.L. (1985). The history of the atmosphere. L., 365 p. (In
9. Russian).
10. Kharuk V.I., Ranson K.J., Im S.T., Naurzbaev M.M. (2006). Larch forests of forest tundra and
11. climatic trends. Ecology, № 5, pp. 323–331. (In Russian).
12. Kislov A.V. (2011). Dynamics of the climate in the XX and XXI century // Environmental
13. and geographical consequences of global climate warming in the XXI century in the
14. East-European plain and in the Western Siberia (Eds. N.S. Kasimov and A.V. Kislov). M.: MAX
15. Press, pp. 14–49 (In Russian).
16. Kislov A.V., Evstigneev V.M., Malkhazova S.M., Sokolikhina N.N., Surkova G.V., Toropov P.A.,
17. Chernyshev A.V., Chumachenko A.N. (2008). Forecast of climate resources of the East-
18. European plain under condition of global warming in the XXI century. M.: MAX Press, 290
19. p. (In Russian).
20. Kislov A., Grebenets V., Evstigneev V., Malkhazova S., Rumiantsev V., Sidorova M., Soldatov
21. M., Surkova G., Shartova N. (2011). Estimation systemique des consequences du rechauffement
22. climatique au XXI siecle dans le Nord Eurasien // Le Changement Climatique. Europe,
23. Asie Septentrionale, Amerique du Nord. Quatriemes Dialogues Europeens d’Evian /
24. Edite par M. Tabeaud et A. Kislov. – Eurcasia: Copy-Media, pp. 75–88 (In French).
25. Krinner G., Viovy N., Noblet-Ducoudre N., Ogee J., Polcher J., Friedlingstein P., Ciais P., Sitch
26. S., Prentice I.C. (2005). A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled
27. atmosphere-biosphere system. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 19, GB1015.
28. Lavorel S., Diaz S., Cornelissen J.H.C., Garnier E., Harrison S.P., McIntyre S., Pausa J.G., Perez-
29. Harguindeguy N., Roumet C., Urcelay C. (2007). Plant Functional Types: Are We Getting
30. Any Closer to the Holy Grail? In: Canadell J.G., Pataki D.E. and Pitelka L.F. (Eds.), Terrestrial
31. Ecosystems in a Changing World, Springer, pp. 149–160.
32. Lovelock J.E. Gaia (1982). A new look at life on Earth. New York: Oxford University Press.
33. Malkhazova S.M., Minin A.A., Leonova N.B., Rumiantsev V.Yu., Soldatov M.S. (2011). Trends
34. of possible changes of the vegetation in the European part of Russia and in Western
35. Siberia // Environmental and geographical consequences of global climate warming in
36. the XXI century in the East-European plain and in the Western Siberia / Ed. N.S. Kasimov
37. and A.V. Kislov. M.: MAX Press, pp. 342–388 (In Russian).
38. Olchev A.V., Novenko E.Yu. (2012). Evaporation of forest ecosystems of the central regions
39. of European Russia in the Holocene. Mathematical Biology and Bioinformatics. V. 7. Number
40. pp. 284–298 (In Russian).
41. Romanovsky M.G., Schekalev R.V. (2009). The forest and climate of the Central part of Russia.
42. M.: Inst. of Forestry RAS, 68 p. (In Russian).
43. Turmanina V.I. (1976). Phytoindication of climate oscillations // Landscape indication of
44. natural processes. Proc. of Moscow Naturalists Society. V. 15, pp. 64–70 (In Russian).
45. Vegetatioon zones and types of vegetation belts in Russia and adjacent territories (1992).
46. Map, 1: 8000000 / Ed. G.N. Ogureeva. M.: Izd-vo LLP “Ecor” (In Russian).
47. Velichko A.A. (1992). Zonal and macroregional changes of landscape and climatic
48. conditions caused by the “greenhouse effect”. Izvestiya RAS, Phys. Geography, N 2.
49. Pp. 89–101. (In Russian).
Review
For citations:
Rumyantsev V., Malkhazova S., Soldatov M., Leonova N., Kislov A. FORECASTED TRENDS IN CHANGES OF VEGETATION IN THE EUROPEAN PART OF RUSSIA IN CONNECTION WITH GLOBAL WARMING. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2012;5(4):4-16. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2012-5-4-3-11
Views: 562
Email this article 