Preview

GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY

Advanced search

MEDICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ASSESSMENT OF COMFORT LEVEL OF WEATHER-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT

https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2016-9-4-24-34

Full Text:

Abstract

The paper provides a brief analysis of research on the impact of global climate change on human health. Using Tatarstan as an example, the paper discusses medical and demographic consequences of the extreme heat wave of the summer of 2010. Assessment of the Volga Federal District (VFD) bioclimate conducted with the help of certain biometeorological parameters allowed evaluating modern global and regional changes of weather-climatic conditions. The main emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal analysis of both the integral pathogenicity index (I) and its individual components for the district territory. In VFD, aggravating weather conditions increase from southwest to northeast. Summer months are associated with comfort weather conditions. In winter, the air temperature pathogenicity index and interdiurnal temperature fluctuations contribute the greatest to I; in summer, the role of cloudiness and humidity pathogenicity indices increases. The contribution of wind speed and interdiurnal pressure fluctuations to I is insignificant in all seasons. Analysis of the frequency distribution of I showed that comfort weather conditions (over 50 % of cases) occur in May–August, aggravating weather conditions occur in March-Appril, and harsh weather conditions in more than 50 % of cases occur in January–February and November–December. Calculation of biometeorological indices allows forecasting risk of thermal hazard under extreme meteorological conditions.

About the Authors

Yuri P. Perevedentsev
Kazan (Volga) Federal University
Russian Federation

Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Ecology of the Atmosphere,

Kremlevskaya 18, 420008, Kazan



Svetlana M. Malkhazova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Department of Biogeography


Timur R. Aukhadeev
Kazan (Volga) Federal University
Russian Federation

Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Ecology of the Atmosphere,

Kremlevskaya 18, 420008, Kazan



Konstantin M. Shantalinsky
Kazan (Volga) Federal University
Russian Federation

Department of Meteorology, Climatology and Ecology of the Atmosphere,

Kremlevskaya 18, 420008, Kazan



References

1. Analiz usloviy anomalnoi pogody na territorii Rossii letom 2010 goda (Analysis of abnormal weather conditions in Russia in the summer of 2010). (2011) Collection of papers / N.P. Shakina (Ed.) / SI «Hydrometeorological Center of Russia». – M., Triada, Ltd, 72 p. (in Russian).

2. Boksha V.G., Bogutsky B.V. (1980) Meditsinskaya klimatologiya i klimatoterapiya (Medical climatology and climatotherapy). – Kiev: Health, 216 p. (in Russian).

3. Byulleten’ monitoringa izmeneniy klimata zemnogo shara (Monitoring bulletin of the Earth climate change) (2015). M.: IGCERoshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, 30 p. (in Russian).

4. Chazov E.I., Boitsov A.I. (2012) Vliyaniye anomalnogo povysheniya temperatury vozdukha na smertnost naseleniya (Effect of abnormal increase in temperature on mortality). Therapeutic Archives, N 1, pp. 29–36. (in Russian).

5. Eizenstat B.A. (1964) Metody rascheta nekotorykh bioklimaticheskikh pokazatelei Methods of calculation of some bioclimatic parameters) Meteorology and Hydrology, N 12, pp. 9–16. (in Russian).

6. Ekologo-geograficheskiye posledstviya globalnogo potepleniya klimata 21 veka na Vostochno-Evropeiskoi ravnine i v Zapadnoi Sibiri (Ecological and geographical consequences of global warming of the XXI century on the East European Plain and in Western Siberia). Kasimov N.S. and Kislov A.V. (Eds.), MAKS Press, 496 p. (in Russian).

7. Emelina S.V, Rubinstein K.G., Guryanov V.V., Perevedentsev Yu.P., Ivanov A.V. (2015) Vliyaniye kratkosrochnykh izmeneniy pogody na lyudei s ishemicheskoi bolezniyu serdtsa v g. Naberezhnyye Chelny (Effect of short-term weather changes on people with coronary heart disease in the city of Naberezhnye Chelny) Meteorology and Hydrology, N 12, pp. 87–94. (in Russian).

8. Emelina S.V. Konstantinov P.N., Malinina E.P., Rubinstein K.G. (2014) Otsenka informativnosti nekotorykh biometeorologicheskich indeksov dlya raznykh raionov Rossii (Evaluation of informativeness of some biometeorological indices for different regions of Russia) Meteorology and Hydrology, N 7, pp. 25–37. (in Russian).

9. Fouillet A., Rey G., Wagner M. et al. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. International journal of Epidemiology, 2008, Vol. 37, N 2, pp. 309–317.

10. Gamburtsev A.G., Sigachyov A.V. (2012) Dinamika vyzovov skoroi pomoshchi Moskvy za posledniye pyat let (Dynamics of ambulance calls in Moscow over the past five years) Vestn. Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 82, N 5, pp. 415–424. (in Russian).

11. Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO 4), UNEP, 2007, – 526 p.

12. Hains A., Kovats R.S., Campbell-Lendrum D., Corvalán C. (2004) Izmeneniye klimata i zdoroviye cheloveka – vozdeistviya, uyazvimost i adaptatsiya (Climate change and human health - impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation). Proc. World. Conf. on Climate Change. – M., pp. 307–322. (in Russian).

13. Hentschel G. (1988) Krupnomasshtabnaya i lokalnaya klassifikatsiya klimata s tochki zreniya biometeorologii cheloveka (Large-scale and local climate classification in terms of human biometeorology). Climate and Human Health, Vol. 1, pp. 117–121. (in Russian).

14. IPCC 2013: Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate // Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 p.

15. Isaev A.A. (2001) Ekologicheskaya klimatologiya (Ecological climatology). – M.: Science World, 456 p. (in Russian).

16. Kislov A.V., Evstigneev V.M., Malkhazova S.M., Sokolihina N.N., Surkov G.V., Toropov P.A., Chernyshev A.V., Chumachenko A.N. (2008) Prognoz klimaticheskoi resursoobespechennosti Vostochno-Evropeiskoi ravniny v usloviyakh potepleniya 21 veka (Prediction for climate resources of the East European Plain under warming of the XXI century). – M.: MAKS Press, 292 p. (in Russian).

17. Klimaticheskaya doktrina Rossiyskoi Federatsii (Climatic Doctrine of the Russian Federation) (2009) Moscow, Roshydromet, 20 p. (in Russian).

18. Malkhazova S.M. (2006) Izmeneniye medico-geograficheskoi kartiny mira (Changing medical and geographical picture of the world). In: Modern global environmental change. – M.: Scientific World, Vol 2, pp. 558–576. (in Russian).

19. McMichael A.J., Hains A., Kovats R.S. Methodological Issues in assessing the effects of climate change on health in: Department of Health, Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: Department of Health, 2002, pp. 55–67.

20. Perevedentsev Yu.P., Shantalinsky K.M., Vazhnova N.A. (2014) Prostranstvenno-vremennyye izmeneniya osnovnykh pokazatelei temperaturno-vlazhnostnogo rezhima v Privolzhskom federalnom okruge (Spatial and temporal changes in the main parameters of temperature and humidity conditions in the Volga Federal District). Meteorology and Hydrology, N 4, pp. 32–48. (in Russian).

21. Perevedentsev Yu.P., Shantalinsky K.M. (2015) Dinamika tropo- i stratosfery i izmeneniya sovremennogo klimata (The dynamics of the troposphere and stratosphere and the modern current climate change). Fundamental and Applied Climatology, N 1, pp. 211–225. (in Russian).

22. Revich B.A. (2007) Neblagopriyatnyye meteorologicheskiye usloviya kak factory riska zdoroviyu naseleniya Rossii (Adverse weather conditions as risk factors of Russia’s population health). Problems of risk analysis, Vol 4, N 1, pp. 16–26. (in Russian).

23. Revich B.A., Maleev V.V. (2011) Izmeneniya klimata i zdoroviye naseleniya Rossii: analiz situatsiy i prognoznyye otsenki (Climate change and the health of the Russian population: situation analysis and forecast assessment). – M.: LENAND, 208 p. (in Russian).

24. Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.A. (2012) Izmeneniya klimata, volny zhary i kholoda kak factory riska povyshennoi smertnosti naseleniya v nekotorykh regionakh Rossii (Climate change, heat waves, and cold as the risk factors for increased mortality in some regions of Russia). Problems of Forecasting, N 2, pp. 122–138. (in Russian).

25. Rukovodstvo po spetsializirovannomu klimatologicheskomu obsluzhivaniyu ekonomiki (Guide for specialized climatological services of economy). N.V. Kobysheva (Ed.). St. Petersburg: MSHO, 336 p. (in Russian).

26. Shartova N.V. Krainov V.N., Malkhazova S.M. (2015) Tekhnologiya integralnoi otsenki bioklimaticheskoi komfortnosti I zagryaznennosti vozdukha na urbanizirovannykh territoriyakh (Methodology for integrated assessment of bioclimatic comfort and air pollution in urban areas). Ecology and Industry of Russia, N 1, pp. 24–29. (in Russian).

27. Sovremennyye globalnyye izmeneniya prirodnoi sredy (Modern global environmental changes). (2006) In 2 vols. M.: Scientific World, Vol. 1, 696 p., Vol. 2, 776 p. (in Russian).

28. Steadman R.G. Norms of apparent temperature in Australia // Austral. Meteorol. Mag., 1994, vol. 43, pp. 1–16.

29. Strategicheskiy prognoz izmeneniy klimata Rossiyskoi Federatsii na period do 2010–2015 i ikh vliyaniya na otrasli ekonomiki Rossii (Strategic forecast of climate change in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2010–2015 and its impact on the sectors of the Russian economy). Roshydromet, – M., 28 p. (in Russian).

30. Tkachuk S.V. (2012) obzor indeksov stepeni komfortnosni pogodnykh usloviy i ikh svyaz’ s pokazatelyami smertnosti (Review of the weather comfort level indices and their correlation with mortality indices). Proc. Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Vol. 347 «Hydro-meteorological forecasts», pp. 194–212. (in Russian).

31. Vinogradov V.V. (2012) Vozdeistviye klimaticheskikh usloviy na cheloveka v zasushlivykh zemlyakh Evropeiskoi Rossii (The impact of climatic conditions on humans in the arid lands of European Russia). Proc. Russian Academy of Sciences. Ser. geogr., N 2, pp. 68–81. (in Russian).

32. Vtoroi otsenochnyi doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii (2014) (The Roshydromet second assessment report on climate change and its impact on the territory of the Russian Federation). – M.: Roshydromet, 1008 p. (in Russian).

33. Whitman S., Good G., Donoghue E.R. et al. Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. American Journal of Public Health, 1997, n. 87 (9), pp. 1515–1518.

34. WHO. Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Responses / Ed. A.J. McMichael et al., Genevа, 2003, 306 p.

35. Zolotokrylin A.N., Kantsebovskaya I.V., Krenke A.N. (1992) Raionirovaniye territorii Rossii po stepeni ekstremalnosti prirodnykh usloviy dlya zhizni cheloveka (Zoning of the territory of Russia by the degree of extreme natural conditions for human life). Math. Russian Academy of Sciences. Ser. geogr., N 6, pp. 16–30. (in Russian).


For citation:


Perevedentsev Y.P., Malkhazova S.M., Aukhadeev T.R., Shantalinsky K.M. MEDICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ASSESSMENT OF COMFORT LEVEL OF WEATHER-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY. 2016;9(4):63-76. https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2016-9-4-24-34

Views: 216


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2071-9388 (Print)
ISSN 2542-1565 (Online)