gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4569gesj-5048Research ArticleRESEARCH PAPERСтатьиRegional dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions in russia, 2017–2023: structure and driversBityukovaVictoria R.

GSP-1, Leninskie gory, Moscow, 119991

vrbityukova@geogr.msu.ruShampurovIvan A.

GSP-1, Leninskie gory, Moscow, 119991

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Department of Social and Economic GeographyRussian Federation202609102026193112123Copyright © Bityukova V.R., Shampurov I.A., 20262026Bityukova V.R., Shampurov I.A.Bityukova V.R., Shampurov I.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/5048

This article analyzes greenhouse gas emission trends in Russian Federation regions from 2017 to 2023, calculated using the author’s methodology. The methodological approach combined a sectoral decomposition of regional changes (identifying the leading driver and assessing the concentration of changes in one or two sectors), measuring structural shifts in the sectoral structure of emissions (the Gatev index), and testing the dynamic factors using a logarithmic change model. The national emission trajectory over the study period was undulating. Emissions declined in 2017–2020 and recovered in 2020–2023, with fuel combustion representing the dominant driver at both stages. However, structural adjustments in most regions were limited, and notable structural shifts were driven by changes in non-fuel sectors, i.e., fugitive emissions from mining, industrial processes, and agriculture. This highlighted the importance of sectoral specialization and local intrasector factors in interpreting regional dynamics. The regression model for the full period 2017–2023 revealed a statistically significant relationship between emission dynamics and changes in economic activity and energy intensity, while for shorter subintervals, the robust relationships are weaker, reflecting the impact of shocks and high sectoral heterogeneity. The analysis also reveals differentiated decoupling patterns between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions across Russian regions, with 29 regions (approximately 35%) demonstrating absolute decoupling effects. The results demonstrated that the analysis of subnational trajectories requires a combination of aggregated estimates and sectoral interpretation, taking into account differences in emission generation mechanisms when developing low-carbon development policies. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.