References

gesj

GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY

2071-93882542-1565

Russian Geographical Society

10.24057/2071-9388-2026-4195

gesj-4852

Research Article

RESEARCH PAPER

Статьи

Modeling the potential distribution of the Ixodes pavlovskyi tick and its changes under current climatic conditions

Popov

I. O.

Glebovskaya str., 20B, Moscow, 107258;

Staromonetniy pereulok, 29/4, Moscow, 119017

igor_o_popov@mail.ru

Popova

E. N.

Staromonetniy pereulok, 29/4, Moscow, 119017

Yu. A. Israel Institute of Global Climate and Ecology; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation

2026

12072026

192224232

2026

Popov I.O., Popova E.N.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/4852

The tick Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev, 1946 is a vector of tick-borne encephalitis virus, Borrelia, and a number of other diseases. It is widespread in Siberia and the Far East, and its range has expanded in recent decades. The purpose of this study was to create a model of its potential distribution over three periods: 1961–1980, 1981–2000 and 2001–2020, during which strong climate change was observed. Modeling was performed using the MaxEnt algorithm. A total of 81 detection points were identified from literature and databases. Bioclimatic parameters were used as the only predictors because climate is apparently the principal factor limiting the distribution of I. pavlovskyi. Five bioclimatic parameters with the lowest pairwise correlations and their transformation functions were selected to provide the best model. Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc), Boyce Index, and Area Under Curve (AUC) were used as model quality metrics. In addition to known distribution areas, new potential territories of distribution with high suitability were identified, including those in Russia, Japan, Central Asia, the Caucasus, China, Canada, and the northern United States. According to the results of modeling, the greatest changes in the potential climatic range of I. pavlovskyi during the study periods occurred in the Siberian part of its range, where the area of high suitability expanded substantially during 2001–2020 as a result of climate change. In other regions, little shift in the potential range of I. pavlovskyi was observed. Also, it was identified that BIO1 (annual mean temperature) and BIO15 (precipitation seasonality) are the most important parameters for model construction.

climate changeixodid ticksIxodes pavlovskyispecies distribution modelingdistribution shiftsMaxEnt

The studies were supported by the grant of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russian Federation (agreement № 075-15-2024-554 of 24.04.2024).

References1

Aiello-Lammens M.E., Boria R.A., Radosavljevic A., Vilela B., and Anderson R.P. (2015). spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography, 38, 541-545, DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01132.

Araújo M.B., Anderson R.P., Barbosa M.A., Beale C.M., Dormann C.F. et al. (2019). Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments. Science advances, 5 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat4858.

Bellard C., Thuiller W., Leroy B., Genovesi P., Bakkenes M., and Courchamp F. (2013). Will climate change promote future invasions? Global Change Biology, 12(19), 3740–3748, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12344.

Chigirik E.D., Istratkina S.V., Birjukova M.P., and Nekrasova A.V. (1972). The occurrence of Ixodes pavlovskyi Pom. (Ixodoidea, Ixodidae) in the Kemerovo district. Parasitology, 6(3), 305-306. (In Russian with English summary)

Chigirik E.D., Seljutina I.A., Birjukova M.T., and Istratkina S.V. (1974). The finding of a nidus of high number of Ixodes pavlovskyi Pom. (Ixodoidea, Ixodidae) and its spontaneous infection with the tick-borne encephalitis virus. Parasitology, 8(2), 81-183. (In Russian with English summary).

Dormann C.F., Elith J., Bacher S., Buchmann C., Carl G., Carré G., Marquéz J.R.G., Gruber B., Lafourcade B., Leitão P.J., Münkemüller T., McClean C., Osborne P.E., Reineking B., Schröder B., Skidmore A.K., Zurell D., and Lautenbach S. (2012). Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography, 36(1), 27–46, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x.

Drake J.M. and Bossenbroek J.M. (2004). The potential distribution of zebra mussels in the United States. Bioscience, 10(54), 931–941, DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[0931:TPDOZM]2.0.CO;2.

Dubinina H.V. and Nikitin A.Y. (2020). A history of one discovery (Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantzev, 1946). Communication 1. Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantzev, 1946: history of description and corroboration of the species validity. Pest-Management, 2(114), 5-13, DOI: 10.25732/PM.2020.43.87.001 (In Russian with English summary).

Elith J., Kearney M., and Phillips S. (2010a) The art of modeling range-shifted species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 330-342, DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x

Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudík M., Chee Y.E., and Yates C.J. (2010b). A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions, 17(1), 43–57, DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x.

Fedorov D. and Hornok S. (2024). Checklist of hosts, illustrated geographical range, and ecology of tick species from the genus Ixodes (Acari, Ixodidae) in Russia and other post-Soviet countries. ZooKeys,1201, 255-343, DOI: 10.3897/zookeys.1201.115467.

Fedorova S. (2017). Ixodidae ticks of northern Tien-Shan as environmental indicators. Science, new technologies and innovations of Kyrgyzstan, 7, 151-154. (In Russian with English summary)

Fick S. and Hijmans R. (2017). WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12), 4302-4315, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5086.

Filippova N.A. (1977). Fauna of the USSR. Arachnids. Volume IV, Issue 4. Ixodid ticks of the subfamily Ixodinae. Leningrad: Nauka. (In Russian).

Filippova N.A. (2001). Multistage mechanism of reproductive isolation of closely related species Ixodes persulcatus and I. pavlovskyi (Ixodidae) in a sympatric area. Parasitology, 35(5), 361-375. (In Russian).

Filippova N.A. and Beliaev V.G. (1970). On species of the Ixodes persulcatus group (Parasitiformes, Ixodidae). V. I. pavlovskyi Pom. and I. nipponensis Kitaoka et Saito in Primorje. Parasitology, 4(6), 515-523 (In Russian with English summary).

Filippova N.A. and Panova I.V. (1998). Geographic variation of all active stages of ontogenesis as a basis for estimate of intraspecific taxonomic structure of Ixodes pavlovskyi (Ixodidae). Parasitology, 32(5), 396-411 (In Russian with English summary).

Grigoryeva L.A., Livanova N.N. (2012) Age changes in Ixodes pavlovskyi (Ixodinae) natural populations from Novosibirsk and its outskirts. Parasitology, 46(4), 249-252 (In Russian with English summary).

Guo Y., Sun Y., and Xu R. (2016). The genus Ixodes (Acari: Ixodidae) in China with three new record species. Acta Parasitologica, 61(4), 729-742, DOI: 10.1515/ap-2016-0102.

Hahn M.B., Jarnevich C.S., Monaghan A.J., and Eisen R.J. (2016). Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States. Journal of Medical Entomology, 53(5), 1176–1191, DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjw076.

Harris I., Osborn T.J., Jones P., and Lister D. (2020). Version 4 of the CRU TS Monthly High-Resolution Gridded Multivariate Climate Dataset. Scientific Data, 7(109), DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3.

IPCC. (2023a). Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781009157896.

IPCC. (2023b). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781009325844.

Kartashov M., Gladysheva A., Shvalov A., Tupota N., Chernikova A., Ternovoi V., and Loktev V. (2023). Novel Flavi-like virus in ixodid ticks and patients in Russia. Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, 14(2), DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.102101.

Kolonin G.V. (1986). Materials on the fauna of ixodid ticks from the south of the Primorje Territory. Parasitology, 20(1), 15-18. (In Russian with English summary).

Korenberg E.I., Nefedova V.V., Romanenko V.N., and Gorelova N.B. (2010). The tick Ixodes pavlovskyi as a host of spirochetes pathogenic for humans and its possible role in the epizootiology and epidemiology of borrelioses. Vector Borne Zoonotic Diseases, 210(5), 453-458, DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2009.0033.

Kovalevsky J.V., Kuksgauzen N.A., and Zhmaeva Z.M. (1975). Materials on the distribution of Ixodes pavlovskyi Pom. in the Altai (Acarina, Ixodidae). Parasitology, 9(6), 518-521. (In Russian with English summary).

Kuyucu A. and Hekimoglu O. (2024). Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus in Europe: integrating microclimatic factors into ecological niche models. Parasitology, 151, 1-12, DOI: 10.1017/S003118202400132X.

Lissovsky A. and Dudov S. (2021). Species-Distribution Modeling: Advantages and Limitations of Its Application. 2. MaxEnt. Biology Bulletin Reviews, 11, 265-275, DOI: 10.1134/S2079086421030087.

Livanova N.N., Livanov S.G., Tikunov A.Y., Fomenko N.V., and Tikunova N.V. (2016). Environmental and Molecular Genetic Features of Ixodes persulcatus and I. pavlovskyi Ticks in Southern West Siberia. Contemporary Problems of Ecology, 9, 730–738, DOI: 10.1134/ S1995425516060081.

Mikryukova T.P., Moskvitina N.S., Kononova Y.V., Korobitsyn I.G., Kartashov M.Y., Tyuten΄kov O.Y., and Loktev V.B. (2014). Surveillance of tickborne encephalitis virus in wild birds and ticks in Tomsk city and its suburbs (Western Siberia). Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases, 5(2), 145–151, DOI: 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2013.10.004.

Nakao M., Miyamoto K., and Kitaoka S. (1992). A new record of lxodes pavlovskyi Pomerantzev from Hokkaido, Japan (Acari: Ixodidae). Japanese Journal of Sanitary Zoology, 43(3), 229-234.

Nikitin A.Y., Allenov A.V., Gordeyko N.S., Morozov I.M., Zvereva T.V., Andaev E.I., Sidorova E.A., and Balakhonov S.V. (2015). A complex of Ixodes pavlovskyi and Ixodes persulcatus species in the south of Primorye and epidemiological significance of its change. Dal΄nevostočnyj žurnal infekcionnoj patologii 27, 23-29. (In Russian with English summary).

Nikoshenko T. and Zubova T. (2021). Seasonal dynamics of ixodid mite activity in Kemerovo. Bulletin of KSAU, 9(174), 150-155, DOI: 10.36718/1819-4036-2021-9-150-155. (In Russian with English summary).

Ogden N.H., Maarouf A., Barker I.K., Bigras-Poulin M., Lindsay L.R., Morshed M.G., O’Callaghan C.J., Ramay F., Waltner-Toews D., and Charron D.F. (2006) Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada. International Journal for Parasitology 36(1): 63–70, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2005.08.016.

Peterson A.T., Soberón J., Pearson R.G., Anderson R.P., Martínez-Meyer E., Nakamura M., and Araújo M.B. (2011). Ecological niches and geographic distributions. Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press. DOI: 10.1515/9781400840670.

Phillips S., Dudík M., and Schapire R.E. (2004). A Maximum Entropy Approach to Species Distribution Modeling. ICML ‘04: Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning, 1-8, DOI: 10.1145/1015330.1015412.

Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., and Schapire R.E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190(3–4), 231-259, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026.

Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Dudík M., Schapire R.E., and Blair M.E. (2017). Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent. Ecography, 40(7), 887–893, DOI: 10.1111/ecog.03049.

Pomerantsev B.I. (1948). New ticks of the genus Ixodes (Ixodoidea). Parasitological collection, vol. 9, ZIN AN USSR, pp 36-46. (In Russian).

Pomerantsev B.I. (1950). Ixodid Ticks (Ixodidae). Fauna SSSR. Arachnids, Vol. IV, issue 2. (In Russian).

Popov I.O. and Popova E.N. (2015). Statistical method for reducing the number of climatic predictors in species distribution modeling. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 18(3), 19-31. DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3734.

Popov I.O. and Yasyukevich V.V. (2014). The taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus: Propagation under climate change conditions in the 21st century. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 39(8), 558–563, DOI: 10.3103/s1068373914080081.

Popova E.N. and Popov I.O. (2013). Climatic factors determining ranges of agricultural pests and agents of plant diseases and model methodology for assessment of change in ranges. Problems of ecological monitoring and ecosystem modelling, 25, 175-204. (In Russian with English summary).

Popova E.N. and Popov I.O. (2019). Modeling of potential climatic ranges of biological species and their climate-driven changes. Fundamental and Applied Climatology, 1, 58-75, DOI: 10.21513/2410-8758-2019-1-58-75. (In Russian with English summary).

Popova E.N. and Popov I.O. (2025). Information on the detection loci of the ixodid tick Ixodes pavlovskyi Pomerantsev, 1946. Data base № 2025622851 of 03 Jule 2025. Russian Federation. Institute of Geography of Russian Academy of Science. https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=82655617 (In Russian).

Popov I.O., Semenov S.M., and Popova E.N. (2021). Assessment of Climatogenic Hazard of the Taiga Tick Ixodes persulcatus Distribution in and Neighboring Countries at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Izvestiya RAN. Seria Geographicheskaya, 85(2), 231-237, DOI: 10.31857/S2587556621020138. (In Russian with English summary).

Porretta D., Mastrantonio V., Amendolia S., Gaiarsa S., Epis S., Genchi C., Bandi C., Otranto D., and Urbanelli S. (2013). Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling. Parasites & Vectors, 6(1), 271, DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-6-271.

Radosavljevic A. and Anderson R.P. (2014). Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation. Journal of Biogeography, 41, 629-643, DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12227.

Sapegina V. and Ravkin Y. (1969). About findings of Ixodes pavlovskyi Pom. in the north-eastern Altai. Parasitology, 3(1), 22-23. (In Russian with English summary).

Sillero N., Arenas-Castro S., Enriquez-Urzelai U., Vale C.G., Sousa-Guedes D., Martínez-Freiría F., Real R., and Barbosa A.M. (2021). Want to model a species niche? A step-by-step guideline on correlative ecological niche modelling. Ecological Modelling, 456(15), DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109671.

Sirotkin M.B. and Korenberg E.I. (2022) Thermal Constants of Development of Ixodes persulcatus and Ixodes ricinus Ticks, Which Determine the Duration of Their Life Cycle and Their Distribution. Entomological Review 102(2), 257-263, DOI:10.1134/s0013873822020117.

Soberón J. (2007). Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecology Letters, 10(12), 1115–1123, DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01107.x.

Srivastava V., Lafond V., and Griess V.C. (2019). Species distribution models (SDM): Applications, benefits and challenges in invasive species management. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 14(20), 1-13, DOI: 10.1079/PAVSNNR201914020.

Stoica A. (2018). An interpretation of multi-model future climate predictions for BIOCLIM variables in Romania. Contribuţii Botanice, 53, 89-109.

Takada N., Ishiguro F., Fujita H., Wang H.P., Wang J.C., and Masuzawa T. (1998) Lyme Disease Spirochetes in Ticks from Northeastern China. The Journal of Parasitology, 84(3), 499, DOI: 10.2307/3284712.

Third assessment report on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. (2022). St. Petersburg: Roshydromet, Naukoemkie tekhnologii. (In Russian with English summary).

Tkachev S.E., Tikunov A.Y., Babkin I.V., Livanova N.N., Livanov S.G., Panov V.V., Yakimenko V.V., Tantsev A.K., Taranenko D.E., and Tikunova N.V. (2017). Occurrence and genetic variability of Kemerovo virus in Ixodes ticks from different regions of Western Siberia, Russia and Kazakhstan. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 47, :56-63, DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2016.11.007.

Ushakova G.V., Fedosenko A.K., and Lobachev Y.S. (1976). Ixodid ticks (Parasitiformes, Ixodidae) of the Dzungarian Alatau. Proceedings of the Institute of Zoology of the Academy of Sciences of the Kazakh SSR , 36, 100-111. (In Russian).

Uusitalo R., Siljander M., Lindén A., Sormunen J., Aalto J., Hendrickx G., Kallio E., Vajda A., Gregow H., Henttonen H., Marsboom C., Korhonen E., Sironen T., Pellikka P., and Vapalahti O. (2022). Predicting habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus ticks in Finland. Parasites & Vectors, 15, DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05410-8.

Yakovchits N., Adelshin R., Nikitin A., Sidorova E., and Andaev E. (2017). Variety of Rickettsia Spechies in Ixodes Ticks at the Russian island (Primorsk Territory) in 2011–2012. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention, 16(6), 27-31, DOI: 10.31631/2073-3046-2017-16-6-27-31 (In Russian with English summary).

Yakimenko V., Malkova M., and Shpynov S. (2013). Ixodid ticks of Western Siberia: fauna, ecology, basic research methods. Omsk: Omsk Scientific Bulletin. (In Russian).

Wang X., Jiang Y., Wu W., He X., Wang Z., Guan Y., Xu N., Chen Q., Shen Y., and Cao J. (2023). Cryptosporidiosis threat under climate change in China: prediction and validation of habitat suitability and outbreak risk for human-derived Cryptosporidium based on ecological niche models. Infectious diseases of poverty, 12, DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01085-0.

Zamoto-Niikura A., Satô M., Kawabata H., Sato-Okubo K., Ando S., Ishihara C., and Hanaki K. (2020). Investigation of Tick-borne Pathogens in Ticks on Rishiri Island, Hokkaido, Japan. Rishiri Studies, 39, 41–46 (in Japanese with English summary).

Zhang L., Ma D., Li C., Zhou R., Wang J., and Liu Q. (2022). Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change. Biology, 11(1), 107, DOI: 10.3390/biology11010107.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.