gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45gesj-419Research ArticleGEOGRAPHYГеографияEX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGIONBerdnikovSergey V.

D.Sc. in Geography, Vice-Chairman of the Southern Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences.

Rostov-on-Don

 

DashkevichLiudmila V.

Rostov-on-Don

KulyginValerii V.

Rostov-on-Don

kulygin@ssc-ras.ruSheverdyaevIgor V.

Rostov-on-Don

TretyakovaI. A.

Rostov-on-Don

YaitskayaNatalia A.

Rostov-on-Don

Federal Research Center - The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2018280620181122945Copyright © Berdnikov S.V., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Tretyakova I.A., Yaitskaya N.A., 20182018Berdnikov S.V., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Tretyakova I.A., Yaitskaya N.A.Berdnikov S.V., Dashkevich L.V., Kulygin V.V., Sheverdyaev I.V., Tretyakova I.A., Yaitskaya N.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/419

The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.