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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">gesj</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2071-9388</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2542-1565</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Geographical Society</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3684</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">gesj-4142</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH PAPER</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Modeling Future Carbon Stock Predictions Based on Land Use</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title></trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Utami</surname><given-names>Westi</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jl. Teknika Utara, Yogyakarta, 55284 </p><p>Jl. Tata Bumi No. 5, Yogyakarta, 55293 </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">westiutami@mail.ugm.ac.id</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sugiyanto</surname><given-names>Catur</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jl. Sosio Humaniora, Yogyakarta, 55281 </p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Rahardjo</surname><given-names>Noorhadi</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jl. Kaliurang, Yogyakarta, 55281 </p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nurhadi</surname><given-names>.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Jl. Sosio Yusticia No.1, Yogyakarta, 55281 </p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-1"><institution>Doctoral Program of Environmental Science Universitas Gadjah Mada ; Department of Land Management Sekolah Tinggi Pertanahan Nasional</institution><country>Indonesia</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-2"><institution>Faculty of Economics and Bussiness Universitas Gadjah Mada</institution><country>Indonesia</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-3"><institution>Faculty Geography Universitas Gadjah Mada</institution><country>Indonesia</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-4"><institution>Faculty of Social Science and Political Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada</institution><country>Indonesia</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>07</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>102</fpage><lpage>113</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Utami W., Sugiyanto C., Rahardjo N., Nurhadi .., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Utami W., Sugiyanto C., Rahardjo N., Nurhadi ..</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Utami W., Sugiyanto C., Rahardjo N., Nurhadi ..</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/4142">https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/4142</self-uri><abstract><p>The considerable influence of extensive land use change on the increasing levels of carbon emissions has significant implications for the occurrence of a multitude of disasters. The objective of this research is to develop a predictive model of future carbon stocks based on land use type. The data set includes land use maps from 2014, 2018, and 2022, obtained through visual interpretation of Pleiades data and associated driving variables, including socio-economic, locational, physical, land, and spatial planning factors. To predict land use in relation to future carbon stock values, the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Markov Chain (MLPNN-MC) algorithm was employed. Research related to this modeling is capable of producing an accuracy rate of 98%. The results of the prediction demonstrate that by 2034, there will be a reduction in the area of land used with high to low carbon stock, with a decrease of 153.2 ha, which equates to a reduction in carbon stock of 9,050 tonnes C/ha. To reduce carbon emissions, it is essential to implement policies that regulate land use change, optimize forest management, and conserve mangrove ecosystems. The monitoring and prediction of future carbon stocks plays a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, enabling more targeted and measurable actions to be taken.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>carbon stock</kwd><kwd>climate change</kwd><kwd>land use</kwd><kwd>built-up expansion</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>prediction modeling</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The author wishes to express gratitude to the fieldwork participants from the Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada. In addition, the author would like to thank the government, the Kulon Progo Regency Land Office, and the Geospatial Information Agency for providing secondary data.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Abbass K., Qasim M.Z., Song H., Murshed M., Mahmood H., &amp; Younis I. (2022). 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