References

gesj

GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY

2071-93882542-1565

Russian Geographical Society

10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2984

gesj-3495

Research Article

RESEARCH PAPER

Статьи

Modeling land use change of mid-sized cities in the process of metropolization. Case study La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Chile

Mustelier

Diana

7820436

dmustelier@uc.cl

Henríquez

Cristian

7820436, 8331150, 7520246

Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de ChileChileInstitute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ; Interdisciplinary Centre on Global Change, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Centre for Sustainable Urban Development ANID/FONDAPChile

2024

05072024

172106118

2024

Mustelier D., Henríquez C.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3495

The current urbanization trend shows a large number of conurbated medium-sized cities growing and others that could be transformed into metropolises, especially in Latin America. This has led to disparities in the provision of urban services and amenities, as well as new territorial processes and spatial fragmentation. The objective of this study is to analyze the future changes in land use and land cover in the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Coquimbo Region, Chile, under two different scenarios: Business-as-usual and Spatial Planning between 2020 and 2042. These different scenarios were simulated using the CLUMondo model based on the evolution of land use/cover between 1990-2020 in order to identify the main dynamics associated with urban growth in both cities. The simulation scenarios reflect how the urban area of the conurbation will expand towards the peri-urban area. In the first scenario, urban land shows an increase of 54%, and in the second one, 45% from 2020 to 2042, reinforcing the issues of the metropolization process in the conurbation, such as spatial segregation, infrastructure deficits, loss of ecosystems and natural landscapes, and fragmentation of rural areas. Spatially explicit models have proven to be a powerful tool for decision-makers tasked with projecting urban growth, particularly in conurbated cities undergoing metropolization.

mid-sized citiesland use changemodelingscenario simulationLa Serena-CoquimboCLUMondo

The authors thank public officials of the Regional Government of Coquimbo for their contribution of knowledge for the validation of the results. Also, we gratefully acknowledge the research support provided by ANID/ Fondecyt Project No 1220688 and CEDEUS, ANID FONDAP 1522A0002.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.