gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2969gesj-3491Research ArticleRESEARCH PAPERСтатьиLand suitability of coffee cultivation under climate change influence in the Ecuadorian AmazonMonteroMarco O. V.

No 50E-31, 0601060 Medellín 

movizuetem@libertadores.edu.coArizaAurora A.

EC060155 – Orellana 

BarrenoNancy M.

EC060155 – Orellana 

Figueroa-SaavedraHilter F.

EC060155 – Orellana 

PorrasAndrea F.

vía Aeropuerto, 170707, Nueva Loja, Lago Agrio 

AguilarYul

vía Aeropuerto, 170707, Nueva Loja, Lago Agrio 

MoyaWladimir

5290000 Osorno 

Universidad de Antioquia – Facultad de Ciencias AgrariasColombiaEscuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH), Facultad de Agronomía, Fray Gaspar de Carvajal, Orellana and Riobamba campusEcuadorInstituto Superior Tecnológico Martha Bucarám de RoldósEcuadorUniversidad de Los Lagos, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Laboratorio de EcologíaChile2024050720241724962Copyright © Montero M., Ariza A., Barreno N., Figueroa-Saavedra H., Porras A.F., Aguilar Y., Moya W., 20242024Montero M., Ariza A., Barreno N., Figueroa-Saavedra H., Porras A.F., Aguilar Y., Moya W.Montero M., Ariza A., Barreno N., Figueroa-Saavedra H., Porras A.F., Aguilar Y., Moya W.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3491

In this study, the influence of climate change on land suitability for coffee cultivation in the Ecuadorian Amazon (EA) was investigated using five global circulation models (GCMs) in two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). Eleven physioedaphological factors were selected for the analysis and were combined with the most influential bioclimatic variables to model past, present and future suitable areas in five provinces of the EA. In assessing past suitability areas, key determinants varied based on land suitability levels. High suitability areas were primarily influenced by factors such as texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, slope, and aspect, while pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more associated with moderate suitability areas. The present high suitability areas were influenced by texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, and slope, whereas aspect, pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more prominent in modeling moderate areas. The ensemble estimation model projected distinct future scenarios for coffee cultivation; under the worst climate scenario (SSP585), Zamora Chinchipe and Morona Santiago, particularly in the east, face considerable unsuitability. Conversely, the more favorable scenario (SSP126) indicates high suitability across Pastaza, Orellana, and Sucumbios, with limited suitability in border areas adjacent to the Highland region. This study highlights the importance of implementing timely adaptation strategies to improve resilience to climate change impacts in the coffee sector.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.