gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-4-4-15gesj-345Research ArticleGEOGRAPHYГеографияMODERN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE REGIME OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC RIVERS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTUREAgafonovaS. A.

Faculty of Geography, Researcher at the Department of Hydrology

sv_andreevna@mail.ruFrolovaN. A.

Faculty of Geography, Professor of Hydrology

sv_andreevna@mail.ruSurkovaG. V.

Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography

sv_andreevna@mail.ruKoltermannK. P.

Leading Scientist of the Natural Risk assessment laboratory at the Faculty of Geography

sv_andreevna@mail.ruLomonosov Moscow State University, MoscowRussian Federation201728122017104415Copyright © Agafonova S.A., Frolova N.A., Surkova G.V., Koltermann K.P., 20172017Agafonova S.A., Frolova N.A., Surkova G.V., Koltermann K.P.Agafonova S.A., Frolova N.A., Surkova G.V., Koltermann K.P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/345

Changes in rivers ice regime features and the climatic resources of the winter period were examined for the territory of Russia northward from 60° N. Datasets from 220 gauging stations for the period from 1960 to 2014 have been used in the study both with the results of numerical experiments carried out using climate models in the framework of the international project CMIP5. A change in the duration of the ice phenomena period, the ice cover period and the maximum thickness of ice on the rivers for the scenario RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century for a spatial grid with a distance between the nodes of 1.75x1.75 degrees in latitude and longitude has been estimated. We elaborated series of the maps. Main features of the ice regime changes are consistent with the expected changes in the duration of the cold season and the accumulated negative air temperatures. The significant changes are expected for the rivers of the Kola Peninsula and the lower reaches of the rivers Northern Dvina and Pechora, whereas the lowest changes - for the center of Eastern Siberia.

 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.