gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2023-2719gesj-3199Research ArticleSPECIAL ISSUE «DUST IN THE ENVIRONMENT: A HAZARD TO HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIETY»Long-Term Air Quality Evaluation System Prediction In China Based On Multinomial Logistic Regression MethodHeY.

Yang. He

7-9, Universitetskaya nab., St Petersburg, 199034

st082131@student.spbu.ruQiD.

Dongfang. Qi

7-9, Universitetskaya nab., St Petersburg, 199034

BureV. M.

7-9, Universitetskaya nab., St Petersburg, 199034

14, Grazhdanskiy pr, St Petersburg, 195220

St. Petersburg State UniversityRussian FederationSt. Petersburg State University; Agrophysical Research InstituteRussian Federation202312012024164164171Copyright © He Y., Qi D., Bure V.M., 20242024He Y., Qi D., Bure V.M.He Y., Qi D., Bure V.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/3199

The aim of this article evaluate the long-term air quality in China based on the air quality index (AQI) and the air quality composite index (AQCI) though the multinomial logistic regression method. The two developed models employ different dependent variables, AQI and AQCI, while maintaining the same controlled variables gross domestic product (GDP), and a primary pollutant. Explicitly, the primary impurity is associated with one or more contaminants among six pollutant factors: O3, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO. Model quality verification is an integral part of our analysis. The results are illustrate d using real air quality data from China. The developed models were applied to predict AQI and ACQI for the 31 capital cities in China from 2013 to 2019 annually. All calculations and tests are conducted using R-studio. In summary, both models are able to predict China’s long-term air quality. A comparison of the AQI and AQCI models using the ROC curve reveals that the AQCI model exhibits greater significance than the AQI model.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.