gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-2-74-93gesj-284Research ArticleSUSTAINABILITYУстойчивое развитиеCHANGES IN CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CROP YIELD IN KWARA STATE (NIGERIA)OriolaO.

Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Ilorin, Nigeria. He started his academic career with M. Sc. Degree (in Physical Geography) from the University of Ibadan in 1985 as a Lecturer at Oyo State College of Education, Ilesha (now Osun State), Nigeria. He was appointed an Assistant Lecturer in the Department of Geography Adeyemi College of Education, Ondo, Nigeria in 1987 and joined the services of the University of Ilorin as Lecturer I in 1995. He obtained his Ph. D. Degree (Geography) in 2004 at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. He also obtained Master’s Degree in Business Administration from Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife, Nigeria in 1995 and Advanced Certificate in Geographic Information Systems from Federal School of Surveying, Oyo, Nigeria in 2000. He has teaching and research experience of 30 years. His research interest has been in Land Resources and Environmental Management. He has published over 40 research papers in referred journals and books. He has also attended and presented papers at many International Conferences. Dr. Emmanuel Oriola is a member of the Association of Nigerian Geographers, International Biogeographical Society and African Association of Remote Sensing of the Environment He has supervised Ph. D., M. Sc. Thesis in Geography and Master Degree Dissertations in Geographic Information System.

lolaoriola@gmail.comOyeniyiS.

Graduate student at the department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Ilorin. He received his Barchelor of Science degree in 2013 and completed the Master programme in the same department in 2016. He is a promising Scholar. His research interest is on Climate Change and Food Security. He is versatile in Application of Geographic Information System (GIS) in Agriculture. This he demonstrated in his study of Farmer’s Perception of Climate Variability: in Three Communities  at Urban Fringe of Ilorin, Nigeria, and Farming without Soil (Aeroponics).

University of IlorinNigeria2017030720171027493Copyright © Oriola O., Oyeniyi S., 20172017Oriola O., Oyeniyi S.Oriola O., Oyeniyi S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/284

This paper assessed the vagaries of climatic elements on crop yield in Kwara State with a view to predicting the future climatic suitability level for selected crops in the state. Descriptive and infrential statistics analytical methods were used to examine the pattern of climatic elements for a period of 30 years. Analysis of variance was used to examine the variations in crop yield and also to determine whether or not significant differences in the harvests of the period under investigation. Correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between climatic elements and crop yield while multiple regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of each climatic elements to crop yield. Time series analysis was used to project crop yield from 2014 to 2025. GAEZ model was adopted to determine the climatic suitability for the selected crops over time 1960 - 2050 and ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to produce the crop suitability maps. The result revealed that cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would be less suitable for production with the rate at which the climate is changing. The result also revealed that the climatic suitability level for cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would reduce drastically with time. The prediction shows severe impacts of changes in the selected climatic elements on both overall climatic suitability and crop the selected crops yield for by 2050.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.