<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">gesj</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2071-9388</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2542-1565</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian Geographical Society</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24057/2071-9388-2014-7-3-108-122</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">gesj-16</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>SUSTAINABILITY</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Устойчивое развитие</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>QUANTIFICATION OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RISKS OF DEBRIS FLOWS FOR THE BLACK SEA COASTAL REGION OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title></trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Baburin</surname><given-names>Vyacheslav L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">vbaburin@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gavrilova</surname><given-names>Sofia A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">gavrilova.sofia@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Koltermann</surname><given-names>Peter</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">koltermann@nral.org</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Seliverstov</surname><given-names>Yury G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">yus5@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sokratov</surname><given-names>Sergey A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">sokratov@geol.msu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shnyparkov</surname><given-names>Aleksandr L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">malyn2006@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-1"><institution>Department of Economical and Social Geography of Russia, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-2"><institution>Laboratory of Snow Avalanches and Debris Flows, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-3"><institution>Laboratory of Natural Risk Assessment, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2014</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>09</month><year>2014</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>108</fpage><lpage>122</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Baburin V.L., Gavrilova S.A., Koltermann P., Seliverstov Y.G., Sokratov S.A., Shnyparkov A.L., 2014</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Baburin V.L., Gavrilova S.A., Koltermann P., Seliverstov Y.G., Sokratov S.A., Shnyparkov A.L.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Baburin V.L., Gavrilova S.A., Koltermann P., Seliverstov Y.G., Sokratov S.A., Shnyparkov A.L.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/16">https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/16</self-uri><abstract><p>Debris flows are the most frequent and disastrous natural hazards among other exogenic processes at the Black Sea coastal region of the North Caucasus. Numerous debris flow releases are reported every year between Novorossiysk and Krasnaya Polyana. The debris flows bring economic losses, and sometimes loss of human lives. Quantification of the economic, individual and collective debris flows risk is based on their spatial distribution, repeatability, debris flows’ regime, as well as economical and social characteristics of the territory accounted for. Estimation of the individual debris flow risk shows that the level of such risk corresponds to “allowable” and “acceptable” degrees [Vorob’ev, 2005] - less than 3,3 × 10-6. The maximal values of the economic debris flow risk are estimated in the Adler region - more than 1 mln. rub. per year.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Black Sea</kwd><kwd>the Caucasus</kwd><kwd>coastal zone</kwd><kwd>debris flows</kwd><kwd>risk</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Andreev, Yu.B., Bozhinskiy, A.N. (1994) Snow avalanches risk estimation in mountain regions. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, N 2, pp. 23-26. [in Rus-sian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Andreev, Yu.B., Bozhinskiy, A.N. (1994) Snow avalanches risk estimation in mountain regions. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, N 2, pp. 23-26. [in Rus-sian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Atlas of natural and technogenic hazards and risks. Russian Federation (2005-2011) Shoigu, S.K. (Ed.) Moscow: Design, Information, Cartography. [in Russian, 8 volumes, subtitles vary].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Atlas of natural and technogenic hazards and risks. Russian Federation (2005-2011) Shoigu, S.K. (Ed.) Moscow: Design, Information, Cartography. [in Russian, 8 volumes, subtitles vary].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Barinov, A.Y. (2009) Geomorphologic estimation of heavy showers-related debris flows danger at the Black Sea coast of Russia. Candidate thesis. Moscow. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Barinov, A.Y. (2009) Geomorphologic estimation of heavy showers-related debris flows danger at the Black Sea coast of Russia. Candidate thesis. Moscow. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Belaya, N.L. (2004) Debris flow regime on the Globe as an object of modelling on the base of the climatic information. Data of glaciological studies, V. 96, 2004, pp. 152-158. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Belaya, N.L. (2004) Debris flow regime on the Globe as an object of modelling on the base of the climatic information. Data of glaciological studies, V. 96, 2004, pp. 152-158. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Belov, D.M. (2000) Estimation of natural risk during reformation of sea coasts (with the Baltic Sea coast destruction near Narva-Iyesuu settlement as an example). In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 276-279. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Belov, D.M. (2000) Estimation of natural risk during reformation of sea coasts (with the Baltic Sea coast destruction near Narva-Iyesuu settlement as an example). In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 276-279. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bründl, M., Romang, H.E., Bischof, N., Rheinberger, C.M. (2009) The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 9, N 3, pp. 801-813. doi:10.5194/nhess-9-801-2009.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bründl, M., Romang, H.E., Bischof, N., Rheinberger, C.M. (2009) The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 9, N 3, pp. 801-813. doi:10.5194/nhess-9-801-2009.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Burova, V.N. (2000) Abrasion risk at Seas and water reservoirs in Russia (comparative analysis). In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 261-264. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Burova, V.N. (2000) Abrasion risk at Seas and water reservoirs in Russia (comparative analysis). In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 261-264. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Chen, S.C., Wu, C.Y., Huang, B.T. (2010) The efficiency of a risk reduction program for debris-flow disasters - a case study of the Songhe community in Taiwan. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 10, N 7, pp. 1591-1603. doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1591-2010.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Chen, S.C., Wu, C.Y., Huang, B.T. (2010) The efficiency of a risk reduction program for debris-flow disasters - a case study of the Songhe community in Taiwan. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 10, N 7, pp. 1591-1603. doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1591-2010.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Chernyavskii, A.S., Efremov, Yu.V. (2010) Regularities of the distribution of the debris flows at the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus. Geomorphology, N 2, pp. 60-69.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Chernyavskii, A.S., Efremov, Yu.V. (2010) Regularities of the distribution of the debris flows at the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus. Geomorphology, N 2, pp. 60-69.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Delmonaco, G., Leoni, G., Margottini, C., Puglisi, C., Spizzichino, D. (2003) Large scale debris-flow hazard assessment: a geotechnical approach and GIS modeling. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 3, N 5, pp. 443-455, doi:10.5194/nhess-3-443-2003.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Delmonaco, G., Leoni, G., Margottini, C., Puglisi, C., Spizzichino, D. (2003) Large scale debris-flow hazard assessment: a geotechnical approach and GIS modeling. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 3, N 5, pp. 443-455, doi:10.5194/nhess-3-443-2003.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Dzetsker, E.S. (1995) Estimation of the probability of losses appearance due to underflooding of a built-up area by ground water. In Analysis and assessment of natural and technogenic risks in construction (proceedings of international conference). Moscow: PNIIS. pp. 83-84. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Dzetsker, E.S. (1995) Estimation of the probability of losses appearance due to underflooding of a built-up area by ground water. In Analysis and assessment of natural and technogenic risks in construction (proceedings of international conference). Moscow: PNIIS. pp. 83-84. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit12"><label>12</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Elkin, V.A. (2004) Regional assessment of karst danger and risk (with Republic Tatarstan as an example). Candidate thesis. Moscow: Institute of Geoecology RAS. 158 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Elkin, V.A. (2004) Regional assessment of karst danger and risk (with Republic Tatarstan as an example). Candidate thesis. Moscow: Institute of Geoecology RAS. 158 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit13"><label>13</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Fuchs, S., Heiss, K., Hübl, J. (2007) Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 7, N 5, pp. 495-506. doi: 10.5194/nhess-7-495-2007.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Fuchs, S., Heiss, K., Hübl, J. (2007) Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 7, N 5, pp. 495-506. doi: 10.5194/nhess-7-495-2007.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit14"><label>14</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., Sokratov, S.A., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2013) Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management. Natural Hazards, V. 68, N 3, pp. 1217-1241. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0508-7.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., Sokratov, S.A., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2013) Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management. Natural Hazards, V. 68, N 3, pp. 1217-1241. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0508-7.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit15"><label>15</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Heinimann, H. (1998) Der Umgang mit Naturrisiken aus ingenieurwissenschaftlicher Sicht. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen, V. 1998 (149), pp. 691-705.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Heinimann, H. (1998) Der Umgang mit Naturrisiken aus ingenieurwissenschaftlicher Sicht. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen, V. 1998 (149), pp. 691-705.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit16"><label>16</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">IPCC (2014) Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities. In Field, C.B., Barros, V.R. Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L. (Eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">IPCC (2014) Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities. In Field, C.B., Barros, V.R. Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L. (Eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit17"><label>17</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kantorovich, L.V., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Molchan, G.M. (1973) Seismic risk and principles of seismic regionalization. In Keilis-Borok, V.I. (Ed.) Computational and statistical methods of the seismic data interpretation (Computational seismology; 6). Moscow: Nauka. pp. 3-20. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kantorovich, L.V., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Molchan, G.M. (1973) Seismic risk and principles of seismic regionalization. In Keilis-Borok, V.I. (Ed.) Computational and statistical methods of the seismic data interpretation (Computational seismology; 6). Moscow: Nauka. pp. 3-20. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit18"><label>18</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kappes M, Keiler M, von Elverfeldt K, Glade T (2012) Challenges of analyzing multihazard risk: a review. Natural Hazards, vol. 64, N 2, pp. 1925-1958.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kappes M, Keiler M, von Elverfeldt K, Glade T (2012) Challenges of analyzing multihazard risk: a review. Natural Hazards, vol. 64, N 2, pp. 1925-1958.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit19"><label>19</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kates, R.W. (1971) Natural hazard in human ecological perspective: hypotheses and models. Economic Geography, V. 47, N 3, pp. 438-451. doi: 10.2307/142820.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kates, R.W. (1971) Natural hazard in human ecological perspective: hypotheses and models. Economic Geography, V. 47, N 3, pp. 438-451. doi: 10.2307/142820.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit20"><label>20</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kates, R.W., Kasperson, J.X. (1983) Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (A Review). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, V. 80, N 22, pp. 7027-7038. doi: 10.1073/pnas.80.22.7027.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kates, R.W., Kasperson, J.X. (1983) Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (A Review). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, V. 80, N 22, pp. 7027-7038. doi: 10.1073/pnas.80.22.7027.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit21"><label>21</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kazakov, N.A. (2000) Estimation of avalanche risk at the roads of the Sakhalin Island. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 269-275. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kazakov, N.A. (2000) Estimation of avalanche risk at the roads of the Sakhalin Island. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 269-275. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit22"><label>22</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kronrod, T.L., Molchan, G.M. (1984) Seismic risk for the largest cities of the World. In Earthquakes and natural hazards prevention (27th International Geological Congress, 4-14 August 1984; Colloquium 06; Proceedings V. 6). Moscow: Nauka. pp. 10-25. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kronrod, T.L., Molchan, G.M. (1984) Seismic risk for the largest cities of the World. In Earthquakes and natural hazards prevention (27th International Geological Congress, 4-14 August 1984; Colloquium 06; Proceedings V. 6). Moscow: Nauka. pp. 10-25. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit23"><label>23</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kienholz, H., Krummenacher, B., Kipfer, A., Perret, S. (2004) Aspects of integral risk management in practice - Considerations with respect to mountain hazards in Switzerland. Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft, März/April, V. 56, N 3-4, pp. 43-50.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kienholz, H., Krummenacher, B., Kipfer, A., Perret, S. (2004) Aspects of integral risk management in practice - Considerations with respect to mountain hazards in Switzerland. Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft, März/April, V. 56, N 3-4, pp. 43-50.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit24"><label>24</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kurbatova, A.S., Myagkov, S.M., Shnyparkov, A.L. (1997) Natural risk for Russian cities. Moscow: NIiPI ekologii goroda. 240 pp.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kurbatova, A.S., Myagkov, S.M., Shnyparkov, A.L. (1997) Natural risk for Russian cities. Moscow: NIiPI ekologii goroda. 240 pp.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit25"><label>25</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kuznetsova, I.L., Miklyaev, S.M., Chernyad’ev, V.P., Chekhovskii A.L. (1995) Estimation of risk for construction on permanently frozen grounds (Bovanenkovskoe field, Yamal peninsula). In Analysis and assessment of natural and technogenic risks in construction (proceedings of international conference). Moscow: PNIIS. pp. 96-97. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kuznetsova, I.L., Miklyaev, S.M., Chernyad’ev, V.P., Chekhovskii A.L. (1995) Estimation of risk for construction on permanently frozen grounds (Bovanenkovskoe field, Yamal peninsula). In Analysis and assessment of natural and technogenic risks in construction (proceedings of international conference). Moscow: PNIIS. pp. 96-97. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit26"><label>26</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Liu, X., Lei, J. (2003) A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China). Geomorphology, 2003, V. 52, N 3-4, pp. 181-191. doi: 10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00242-8.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Liu, X., Lei, J. (2003) A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China). Geomorphology, 2003, V. 52, N 3-4, pp. 181-191. doi: 10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00242-8.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit27"><label>27</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Marzocchi, W., Garcia-Aristizaba, A., Gasparini, P., Mastellone, M.L., Di Ruocco, A. (2012) Basic principles of multirisk assessment: a case study in Italy. Natural Hazards, V. 62, N 2, pp. 551-573. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Marzocchi, W., Garcia-Aristizaba, A., Gasparini, P., Mastellone, M.L., Di Ruocco, A. (2012) Basic principles of multirisk assessment: a case study in Italy. Natural Hazards, V. 62, N 2, pp. 551-573. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit28"><label>28</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Marzocchi, W., Mastellone, M.L., Di Ruocco, A., Novelli, P., Romeo, E., Gasparini, P. (2009) Principles of multirisk assessment; Interaction amongst natural and maninduced risks (EUR 23615). EC. 69 pp. doi: 10.2777/30886.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Marzocchi, W., Mastellone, M.L., Di Ruocco, A., Novelli, P., Romeo, E., Gasparini, P. (2009) Principles of multirisk assessment; Interaction amongst natural and maninduced risks (EUR 23615). EC. 69 pp. doi: 10.2777/30886.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit29"><label>29</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Myagkov, S.M. (1995) Geography of natural risk. Moscow: Moscow State University. 222 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Myagkov, S.M. (1995) Geography of natural risk. Moscow: Moscow State University. 222 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit30"><label>30</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Myagkov, S.M. (2000) Multiplicity of the parameters of measure of natural risk. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 296-300. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Myagkov, S.M. (2000) Multiplicity of the parameters of measure of natural risk. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 296-300. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit31"><label>31</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Myagkov, S.M., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2004) Concept of Risk. In Malkhazova, S.M., Chalov, R.S. (Eds.) Natural-anthropogenic processes and environmental risk (Kasimov, N.S. (Ed.) Geography, Society and Environment; V. 4). Moscow: Gorodets Publishing House, 2004. pp. 265-274. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Myagkov, S.M., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2004) Concept of Risk. In Malkhazova, S.M., Chalov, R.S. (Eds.) Natural-anthropogenic processes and environmental risk (Kasimov, N.S. (Ed.) Geography, Society and Environment; V. 4). Moscow: Gorodets Publishing House, 2004. pp. 265-274. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit32"><label>32</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Osipov, V.I., Shoigu, S.K. (Eds.) (2000-2003) Natural hazards of Russia. Moscow: Kruk. [in Russian, 6 volumes, subtitles vary].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Osipov, V.I., Shoigu, S.K. (Eds.) (2000-2003) Natural hazards of Russia. Moscow: Kruk. [in Russian, 6 volumes, subtitles vary].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit33"><label>33</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ragozin, A.L. (1997) Theory and practice of the geological risks estimation. Doctoral thesis. Moscow: PNIIS. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ragozin, A.L. (1997) Theory and practice of the geological risks estimation. Doctoral thesis. Moscow: PNIIS. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit34"><label>34</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Romang, H., Kienholz, H., Kimmerle, R., Böll, A. (2003) Control structures, vulnerability, cost-effectiveness - a contribution to the management of risks from debris torrents. In Röthlisberger, G., Chen, C. (Eds.) 3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment; Davos; Switzerland; 10 September 2003 through 12 September 2003; Proceedings. V. 2. Rotterdam: Millpress, pp. 1303-1313.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Romang, H., Kienholz, H., Kimmerle, R., Böll, A. (2003) Control structures, vulnerability, cost-effectiveness - a contribution to the management of risks from debris torrents. In Röthlisberger, G., Chen, C. (Eds.) 3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment; Davos; Switzerland; 10 September 2003 through 12 September 2003; Proceedings. V. 2. Rotterdam: Millpress, pp. 1303-1313.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit35"><label>35</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Seliverstov, Y., Glazovskaya, T., Shnyparkov, A., Vilchek, Y., Sergeeva, K., Martynov, A. (2008) Assessment and mapping of snow avalanche risk in Russia. Annals of Glaciology, V. 49. pp. 205-209. doi: 10.3189/172756408787814672.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Seliverstov, Y., Glazovskaya, T., Shnyparkov, A., Vilchek, Y., Sergeeva, K., Martynov, A. (2008) Assessment and mapping of snow avalanche risk in Russia. Annals of Glaciology, V. 49. pp. 205-209. doi: 10.3189/172756408787814672.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit36"><label>36</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Selva, J. (2013) Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks. Natural Hazards, V. 67, N 2, pp. 701-722. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0599-9.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Selva, J. (2013) Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks. Natural Hazards, V. 67, N 2, pp. 701-722. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0599-9.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit37"><label>37</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Shishkina L.A. (1967) Hydrometeorological sketch of the Tuapse region. In Tuapse and Tuapse region. Krasnodar. pp. 78-93.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Shishkina L.A. (1967) Hydrometeorological sketch of the Tuapse region. In Tuapse and Tuapse region. Krasnodar. pp. 78-93.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit38"><label>38</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Shnyparkov, A., Fuchs, S., Sokratov, S., Koltermann, K., Seliverstov, Y., Vikulina, M. (2012) Theory and practice of individual snow avalanche risk assessment in the Russian Arctic. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, V. 5, N 3, pp. 64-81.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Shnyparkov, A., Fuchs, S., Sokratov, S., Koltermann, K., Seliverstov, Y., Vikulina, M. (2012) Theory and practice of individual snow avalanche risk assessment in the Russian Arctic. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, V. 5, N 3, pp. 64-81.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit39"><label>39</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Shnyparkov, A.L., Gryaznova, V.V., Danilina, A.V., Martynov, A.V. (2009) Debris flows risk in Russia. In Burov, V.N. (Ed.) Problems of decrease in natural hazards and risks; Proceedings of the “Risk-2009” International Scientific-Applied Conference. V. 2. Moscow: Peoples’ friendship university of Russia. pp. 39-44. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Shnyparkov, A.L., Gryaznova, V.V., Danilina, A.V., Martynov, A.V. (2009) Debris flows risk in Russia. In Burov, V.N. (Ed.) Problems of decrease in natural hazards and risks; Proceedings of the “Risk-2009” International Scientific-Applied Conference. V. 2. Moscow: Peoples’ friendship university of Russia. pp. 39-44. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit40"><label>40</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Shnyparkov, A.L., Koltermann, P.K., Seliverstov, Yu.G., Sokratov, S.A., Perov, V.F. (2013) Risk of mudflows at the Caucasian coast of the Black Sea. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, N. 3, pp. 42-48. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Shnyparkov, A.L., Koltermann, P.K., Seliverstov, Yu.G., Sokratov, S.A., Perov, V.F. (2013) Risk of mudflows at the Caucasian coast of the Black Sea. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, N. 3, pp. 42-48. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit41"><label>41</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Sokratov S.A., Seliverstov, Yu.G., Koltermann, K.P., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2013) Anthropogenic influence on snow avalanches and debris flows activity. Ice and Snow, N 2 (122), pp. 121-128. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sokratov S.A., Seliverstov, Yu.G., Koltermann, K.P., Shnyparkov, A.L. (2013) Anthropogenic influence on snow avalanches and debris flows activity. Ice and Snow, N 2 (122), pp. 121-128. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit42"><label>42</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Staffler, H., Pollinger, R., Zischg, A., Mani, P. (2008) Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 8, N 3, pp. 539-558. doi: 10.5194/nhess-8-539-2008.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Staffler, H., Pollinger, R., Zischg, A., Mani, P. (2008) Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, V. 8, N 3, pp. 539-558. doi: 10.5194/nhess-8-539-2008.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit43"><label>43</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Tolmachev, V.V. (2000) Estimation of karst collapse risk in solving engineering problems. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 247-250. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Tolmachev, V.V. (2000) Estimation of karst collapse risk in solving engineering problems. In Ragozin, A.L. (Ed.) Natural risks assessment and management; Proceedings of the “Risk-2000” All-Russia conference. Moscow: ANKIL, 2000. pp. 247-250. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit44"><label>44</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Totschnig, R., Fuchs, S. (2013) Mountain torrents: quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties. Engineering Geology, V. 155, pp. 31-44. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.12.019.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Totschnig, R., Fuchs, S. (2013) Mountain torrents: quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties. Engineering Geology, V. 155, pp. 31-44. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.12.019.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit45"><label>45</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">UNEP (2002) Disasters. In Global Environment Outlook (GEO 3); Past, present and future perspectives. London, Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications Ltd. pp. 270-300.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">UNEP (2002) Disasters. In Global Environment Outlook (GEO 3); Past, present and future perspectives. London, Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications Ltd. pp. 270-300.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit46"><label>46</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">UNEP (2012) Global Environment Outlook (GEO 5); Environment for the future we want. Malta: Progress Press Ltd. 528 pp.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">UNEP (2012) Global Environment Outlook (GEO 5); Environment for the future we want. Malta: Progress Press Ltd. 528 pp.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit47"><label>47</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Vorob’ev, Yu.L. (2005) Personal and social safety (some aspects of the State policy). Moscow: EMERCOM, Delovoi ekspress. 376 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Vorob’ev, Yu.L. (2005) Personal and social safety (some aspects of the State policy). Moscow: EMERCOM, Delovoi ekspress. 376 pp. [in Russian].</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
