gesjGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITYGEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY2071-93882542-1565Russian Geographical Society10.24057/2071-9388-2020-54gesj-1548Research ArticleRESEARCH PAPERСтатьиImpact Assessment And Stochastic Modeling Of Morphometric Parameters Of Thermokarst Hazard For Unpaved RoadsOrlovTimofey V.

Ulansky per., 13/2, Moscow, 101000

tim.orlov@gmail.comVictorovAleksey S.

Ulansky per., 13/2, Moscow, 101000

ArkhipovaMaria V.

Ulansky per., 13/2, Moscow, 101000

ZverevAndrey V.

Gorokhovskiy per., 4, Moscow, 105064

Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS (IEG RAS)Russian FederationMoscow State University of Geodesy and Cartography (MIIGAiK)Russian Federation20203112202013498106Copyright © Orlov T.V., Victorov A.S., Arkhipova M.V., Zverev A.V., 20202020Orlov T.V., Victorov A.S., Arkhipova M.V., Zverev A.V.Orlov T.V., Victorov A.S., Arkhipova M.V., Zverev A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ges.rgo.ru/jour/article/view/1548

Active construction of new roads and other linear structures requires new techniques for the natural hazard assessment. These techniques can involve both stochastic modeling and remote sensing data (RSD). First, the dynamics of thermokarst appearance along an unpaved road (winter road) was analyzed. Then a probabilistic model of the thermokarst morphological pattern was developed for the area in the vicinity of a linear structure, a road in particular. The model operates with initial assumptions based on the physical parameters of thermokarst development and includes relations for estimating the distribution of morphometric dimensions of thermokarst depressions (ponds). The model was empirically tested for the study area, which represented a site with an unpaved road located in West Siberia region. To verify the model, we calculated the correlation coefficient values for the length of the focus projections on the linear structure and the perpendicular axis and compared the empirical distribution of the projections with the theoretical lognormal distribution using the Pearson’s criterion. The proposed model assumptions appeared to be valid for the study area, which makes it possible to proceed to the problem of probabilistic impact risk assessment to a linear structure by foci of human-induced thermokarst.

Stochastic modelingPearson’s criterionremote sensingmathematical morphology of landscapesroadshumaninduced thermokarstThe study was carried out under the state funding within the framework of a state assignment, scientific project No. АААА–А19–119021190077–6 and the Russian Geographical Society and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research Grant # 17-05-41141 (modeling and testing).ReferencesArenson L., Matthias J. (2017). Permafrost-Related Geohazards and Infrastructure Construction in Mountainous Environments. Oxford Research Encyclopedia Natural Hazard Science.Arenson L., Matthias J. (2017). Permafrost-Related Geohazards and Infrastructure Construction in Mountainous Environments. Oxford Research Encyclopedia Natural Hazard Science.Boike G., Kirillin C., Muster G., Abramova S., Fedorova K., Chetverova I., Grigoriev A., Bornemann M., Langer M. (2015). Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia—Observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia), Biogeosciences, 12.Boike G., Kirillin C., Muster G., Abramova S., Fedorova K., Chetverova I., Grigoriev A., Bornemann M., Langer M. (2015). Thermal processes of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia—Observations and modeling (Lena River Delta, Siberia), Biogeosciences, 12.Cosford J., Zeyl D., Penner L. (2014). Terrain analysis for pipeline design, construction, and operation. Journal of Pipeline Engineering. 13, 149-165.Cosford J., Zeyl D., Penner L. (2014). Terrain analysis for pipeline design, construction, and operation. Journal of Pipeline Engineering. 13, 149-165.Doré G., Fujun N., Brooks H. (2016). Adaptation Methods for Transportation Infrastructure Built on Degrading Permafrost. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 27.Doré G., Fujun N., Brooks H. (2016). Adaptation Methods for Transportation Infrastructure Built on Degrading Permafrost. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 27.Dvornikov Y., Leibman M., Heim B., Bartsch A., Herzschuh Ulrike., Skorospekhova T., Fedorova I., Khomutov A., Widhalm Barbara., Gubarkov A., Roessler S. (2018). Terrestrial CDOM in Lakes of Yamal Peninsula: Connection to Lake and Lake Catchment Properties. Remote Sensing, 10, 167.Dvornikov Y., Leibman M., Heim B., Bartsch A., Herzschuh Ulrike., Skorospekhova T., Fedorova I., Khomutov A., Widhalm Barbara., Gubarkov A., Roessler S. (2018). Terrestrial CDOM in Lakes of Yamal Peninsula: Connection to Lake and Lake Catchment Properties. Remote Sensing, 10, 167.Fel’dman G.M. (1984). Thermokarst and permafrost, Novosib., 360 (in Russian).Fel’dman G.M. (1984). Thermokarst and permafrost, Novosib., 360 (in Russian).Gonikov T.V. (2019). Using earth remote sensing to study the parameters of the morphological structure of the ridge landscape in the north caspian region. Izvestiya – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 55(9), 1346-1352Gonikov T.V. (2019). Using earth remote sensing to study the parameters of the morphological structure of the ridge landscape in the north caspian region. Izvestiya – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 55(9), 1346-1352Hjort J., Karjalainen O., Aalto J., Westermann S., Romanovsky V., Nelson F., Etzelmüller B., Luoto Miska. (2018). Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century. Nature Communications, 9.Hjort J., Karjalainen O., Aalto J., Westermann S., Romanovsky V., Nelson F., Etzelmüller B., Luoto Miska. (2018). Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century. Nature Communications, 9.Huang W., Zhang J., Leppäranta M., Li Z., Cheng B., Lin Z. (2019). Thermal structure and water-ice heat transfer in a shallow ice–covered thermokarst lake in central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Hydrology. 124122.Huang W., Zhang J., Leppäranta M., Li Z., Cheng B., Lin Z. (2019). Thermal structure and water-ice heat transfer in a shallow ice–covered thermokarst lake in central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Hydrology. 124122.Kapralova V.V. (2015). Implementation of Remote Sensing and Mathematical Modeling for Study of Risk Assessment to Linear Engineering Structures Due to Thermokarst Processes// G. Lollino et al. (eds.), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory – Volume 1, Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 267-270, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0_50Kapralova V.V. (2015). Implementation of Remote Sensing and Mathematical Modeling for Study of Risk Assessment to Linear Engineering Structures Due to Thermokarst Processes// G. Lollino et al. (eds.), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory – Volume 1, Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 267-270, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0_50Ling F., Zhang T. (2003). Numerical simulation of permafrost thermal regime and talik development under shallow thaw lakes on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4511.Ling F., Zhang T. (2003). Numerical simulation of permafrost thermal regime and talik development under shallow thaw lakes on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4511.Ling F., Wu Q., Zhang T. and Niu F. (2012). Modelling Open-Talik Formation and Permafrost Lateral Thaw under a Thermokarst Lake, Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost and Periglac. Process., 23(4), 312-321.Ling F., Wu Q., Zhang T. and Niu F. (2012). Modelling Open-Talik Formation and Permafrost Lateral Thaw under a Thermokarst Lake, Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost and Periglac. Process., 23(4), 312-321.Matell N., Anderson R., Overeem I., Wobus C., Urban F., Clow G. (2013). Modeling the subsurface thermal impact of Arctic thaw lakes in a warming climate. Computers & Geosciences, 53, 69-79.Matell N., Anderson R., Overeem I., Wobus C., Urban F., Clow G. (2013). Modeling the subsurface thermal impact of Arctic thaw lakes in a warming climate. Computers & Geosciences, 53, 69-79.Mazhitova G., Karstkarel N., Oberman N., Romanovsky V., Kuhry P. (2004). Permafrost and Infrastructure in the Usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): Possible Impacts of Global Warming. Ambio, 33, 289-94, DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-33.6.289.Mazhitova G., Karstkarel N., Oberman N., Romanovsky V., Kuhry P. (2004). Permafrost and Infrastructure in the Usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): Possible Impacts of Global Warming. Ambio, 33, 289-94, DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-33.6.289.Methodical guidelines for engineering-geological survey of a scale of 1: 200 000 (1: 100000-1: 500000) (1978). Moscow: Nedra, 391 (in Russian).Methodical guidelines for engineering-geological survey of a scale of 1: 200 000 (1: 100000-1: 500000) (1978). Moscow: Nedra, 391 (in Russian).Perl’shteyn G.Z., Pavlov A.V., Levashov A.V., Sergeyev D.O. (2005). Non-temperature factors of heat exchange of the active layer with the atmosphere. Materials of the Third Conference of russian geocryologists, Moscow: MSU, 86-91 (in Russian).Perl’shteyn G.Z., Pavlov A.V., Levashov A.V., Sergeyev D.O. (2005). Non-temperature factors of heat exchange of the active layer with the atmosphere. Materials of the Third Conference of russian geocryologists, Moscow: MSU, 86-91 (in Russian).Ragozin A. (1997). Basic theses of the theory of dangerous geological processes and risks. New ideas in the Earth Sciences: Abstracts, Moscow, 4, 115 (in Russian).Ragozin A. (1997). Basic theses of the theory of dangerous geological processes and risks. New ideas in the Earth Sciences: Abstracts, Moscow, 4, 115 (in Russian).Romanovskii, N.N., Hubberten H.W. (2001). Results of permafrost modelling of the lowlands and shelf of the Laptev Sea Region/ Permafrost and Periglac. Process., 12(2), 191-202.Romanovskii, N.N., Hubberten H.W. (2001). Results of permafrost modelling of the lowlands and shelf of the Laptev Sea Region/ Permafrost and Periglac. Process., 12(2), 191-202.Tumskoy V. (2002). Thermokarst and its role in the development of the Laptev Sea region in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Author’s Candidate’s summery, Moscow (in Russian).Tumskoy V. (2002). Thermokarst and its role in the development of the Laptev Sea region in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Author’s Candidate’s summery, Moscow (in Russian).Savincev I. (2012). Engineering-geological conditions of the valley areas of the cryolithozone of Yanao (on the example of Salekhard and Nadym areas). Dissertation, Ekaterinburg (in Russian).Savincev I. (2012). Engineering-geological conditions of the valley areas of the cryolithozone of Yanao (on the example of Salekhard and Nadym areas). Dissertation, Ekaterinburg (in Russian).Shamilishvili G., Abakumov E., Pechkin A. (2016). Features of the soil cover of the Nadym region, JaNAO. – Scientific Bulletin of the YamalNenets Autonomous Okrug, 3, 16-25 (in Russian).Shamilishvili G., Abakumov E., Pechkin A. (2016). Features of the soil cover of the Nadym region, JaNAO. – Scientific Bulletin of the YamalNenets Autonomous Okrug, 3, 16-25 (in Russian).Shiklomanov N., Nelson F. (2013). Thermokarst and Civil Infrastructure. In Treatise on Geomorphology, 8. Elsevier Inc. 354-373, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-374739-6.00214-1.Shiklomanov N., Nelson F. (2013). Thermokarst and Civil Infrastructure. In Treatise on Geomorphology, 8. Elsevier Inc. 354-373, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-374739-6.00214-1.Shur Y.U. (1977). Thermokarst (to the thermophysical foundations of the doctrine of the laws of the development of the process). Moscow: Nedra, 80 (in Russian).Shur Y.U. (1977). Thermokarst (to the thermophysical foundations of the doctrine of the laws of the development of the process). Moscow: Nedra, 80 (in Russian).State geological map RF scale 1:1 000 000 (tret’e pokolenie), West Siberian series, s. Q 43 – Novyj Urengoj (2015). S-Pb (in Russian).State geological map RF scale 1:1 000 000 (tret’e pokolenie), West Siberian series, s. Q 43 – Novyj Urengoj (2015). S-Pb (in Russian).Streletskiy D., Shiklomanov N., Nelson F. (2012). Permafrost, Infrastructure, and Climate Change: A GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling, Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 44:3, 368-380.Streletskiy D., Shiklomanov N., Nelson F. (2012). Permafrost, Infrastructure, and Climate Change: A GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling, Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 44:3, 368-380.Victorov A.S., Kapralova V.N., Orlov T.V., Trapeznikova O.N., Arhipova M.V., Berezin P.V., Zverev A.V., Panchenko E.N., Sadkov S.A. (2015). An analysis of the morphological structure development of the thermokarst-lake plains on the base of the mathematical model. Geomorphology RAS (3), 3-13, DOI: 10.15356/0435-4281-2015-3-3-13.Victorov A.S., Kapralova V.N., Orlov T.V., Trapeznikova O.N., Arhipova M.V., Berezin P.V., Zverev A.V., Panchenko E.N., Sadkov S.A. (2015). An analysis of the morphological structure development of the thermokarst-lake plains on the base of the mathematical model. Geomorphology RAS (3), 3-13, DOI: 10.15356/0435-4281-2015-3-3-13.Victorov A.S., Orlov T.V., Kapralova V.N., Trapeznikova O.N., Sadkov S.A., Zverev A.V. (2019). Stochastic Modeling of Human-Induced Thermokarst and Natural Risk Assessment for Existing and Planned Engineering Structures. Natural Hazards and Risk Research in Russia. Svalova V. (eds). Springer, Cham, 219-239.Victorov A.S., Orlov T.V., Kapralova V.N., Trapeznikova O.N., Sadkov S.A., Zverev A.V. (2019). Stochastic Modeling of Human-Induced Thermokarst and Natural Risk Assessment for Existing and Planned Engineering Structures. Natural Hazards and Risk Research in Russia. Svalova V. (eds). Springer, Cham, 219-239.Victorov A.S., Trapeznikova O.N. (2019). Stochastic Models Of Dynamic Balance State For The Morphological Patterns Of Cryolithozone Landscapes. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY; 12(3), 6-15, DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2018-68.Victorov A.S., Trapeznikova O.N. (2019). Stochastic Models Of Dynamic Balance State For The Morphological Patterns Of Cryolithozone Landscapes. GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY; 12(3), 6-15, DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2018-68.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.