THE CHINESE INITIATIVE “ THE BELT AND ROAD ” : A GEOGRAPHICAL PERSPECTIVE

“The Belt and Road” is a long-term comprehensive strategic program for the development of Eurasia and the world, which has been promoted by China beginning in 2013. Its multi-dimensional features (in-country, regional, and global) are inclusive (multi-vector, the participation of all sectors of the economy) and have a strong non-economic component (“soft power”). The strategy is aimed at solving the problems of the Chinese economy with the help of foreign-policy methods and consolidation of China as an engine for the global economy. By virtue of its scale, the consistent implementation of the strategic provisions put forward in China would result in significant industrial and geographical transformations of the existing international division of labor. Active and proactive participation of Russia in the new course of China allows realization of the export and transit potential of Russia’s economy and helps mitigate imbalances in development between its parts. The authors discuss the concerns and risks associated with the implementation of initiatives.


INTRODUCTION
"The Belt and Road" is the largest international initiative ever put forward by the Chinese leadership.Over the past two or three years, it has gradually occupied an important place in the international projects of the Chinese leadership and now actually plays the role of a full-fledged strategic and foreign policy in most areas of China's affairs [Debin DU, Yahua MA, 2015].At that, the institutionalization of the process is gradual and has not been completed to date, and the strategic objectives and methods are being gradually refined over the course of its implementation [Uyanaev, 2016].
First proposed by China's President Xi Jinping in 2013 [Chinanews.com, 2013], the initiative of a broad economic and trade cooperation in the zone of the land and maritime Silk Road routes, that is, in fact, the entire Eurasia and Africa, has immediately aroused interest in many countries.Because at the initial stage the proposal of China's leader did not have a clear-cut framework, the assessments of its scope and potential area of implementation differed.Some researchers regarded the "Belt and Road" idea as a confirmation and consolidation strategy of developing the western regions of China [Larin, Matveev, 2014].Others thought that its main purpose was establishment abroad, especially in the neighboring areas, of transport infrastructure, facilitating the export of Chinese goods to the world market.The roots of the initiative, thus, were seen in the ongoing, for more than a decade, Chinese "outward" business strategy [Sazonov et  proportions, which may involve the states of three continents -Asia, Europe, and Africa.The "Belt and Road" can be regarded as a concept of China's response to advancement of the previous US administration's projects of the Pacific and trans-Atlantic partnership.There is also a desire to make greater use of external economic ties to boost economic growth and ease the situation with the overproduction of many types of investment products in China.
With all the abundance of publications and presentations on the topic of "The Belt and Road, " this concept is still cannot be considered in its final shape.And in China and beyond, there are different views on the concept's content, spatial coverage, objectives, and ways of achieving them.The country has more than a hundred of expert centers specializing in the problems of the "The Belt and Road" [China's Belt and Road initiative …, 2016]: researchers in international law, political scientists, economists, and social scientists regularly share their views on the essence of the project with the leadership and the public.This institutional latitude affects outside assessments of the project and its parts.Chinese geographers also participate in the process; they are actively involved in the formulation of the national policy and provide scientific support for the development of specific intergovernmental agreements.Topics of their work in the area of the "The Belt and Road" strategy mainly relate to issues of geopolitics, geography of foreign countries, trends and practices in foreign direct investment and foreign trade, as well as transport geography [Liu W.D., 2015].The Chinese government encourages research aimed at supporting the most effective options for the implementation of the strategy.The goal of this study is to discuss the global geo-political and geo-economic importance of the China's initiative and its main focus and to outline some geographic problems of scientific support.

"THE BELT AND ROAD" AS A NEW PHASE OF GLOBALIZATION
The scale of the initiative put forward by China does not allow ignoring its geo-political significance for the world economy as a whole.Formation of the international geoeconomic and geo-political landscape is often associated in geography with the alternation of integration and disintegration of the world economy development cycles [Sintserov, 2000].Thus, any integration, according to B.N. Zimin, is forming around a leader who shapes it largely as "he/she sees fit." The first global integration cycle -PaxBritannicalasted from the middle of the XIX century to 1914.It was followed by the first global cycle of disintegration that involved the two world wars with two decades in between.
The second cycle of global integration -PaxAmericana -began in 1945, when the US economy accounted for half of the world's one.The crisis of 2008 may be roughly assumed to represent its end.It is possible that after about two decades of turbulence in the "multipolar world, " PaxSinica may be established on the planet.The "The Belt and Road" strategy is precisely, in many ways, the first attempt to outline features desirable for China in the new phase of globalization and to find the ways for its practical implementation.
What are the characteristic features of "The Belt and Road" concept considered in a wider aspect than just the strategy of strengthening regional integration in Eurasia and as a fully-fledged alternative model of globalization?According to a number of Chinese authors [Liu, Dunford, 2016; Du Debin, Ma Yahua, 2015], the promotion of the "Big" strategy means the completion of a stage where China influenced the course of globalization passively, merely by the fact of its participation in it.The major declared principles of "Chinese-style globalization" are peace, cooperation, development, mutual benefit, and, most importantly, diversity and justice.China intends to transition to the new stage not through the demolition of the old model but through its gradual improvement towards the enhancement of the free movement of goods and capital across the globe.The five major areas of international cooperation are coordination of economic policies, infrastructure integration, removal of trade and investment barriers, and drawing together peoples and cultures.
In the new phase of world economic development, China strives to modernize its industry and to renounce environmentally harmful low-profit industries in favor of production of cleaner products with higher added value.For other developing countries, it is an opportunity to host the industry removed, hold export-oriented industrialization, and achieve the same success in the fight against poverty, which has been gained in China.However, for this, these countries must have the appropriate financial and institutional capacities.China is ready to provide partners with cheap money and institutional assistance (development planning, management training, consulting, etc.) in exchange for benefits for Chinese companies that export their business and their participation in all stages of the modernization of the partners's economy, from roads and seaports construction projects to technology clusters management.In the construction projects overseas with the use of Chinese labor and Chinese funds, money may not even travel outside of China, and therefore, the economic effect is nearly identical to the implementation of projects within the country.Therefore, the market for Chinese goods and services may be expanded, and the Chinese economy will move up the value chains -from production to the foreign asset management.Among other things, the growth of the wealth of people in developing countries will create a powerful additional demand for low-and medium-price segment consumer goods produced by Chinese firms.
Of course, the export of production from China to other countries is gaining momentum even without the intervention of the state, but the "The Belt and Road" strategy aims to ensure the leading position of Chinese companies in the process.This means a new stage of development of the country, when it is gradually emerging not as a "world's factory" but as a global investor.It took more than three decades for China to achieve a development-management and businessskills level acceptable to do business overseas and to prepare a significant number of suitably qualified staff.The success of the strategy will trigger a second wave of migration of labor-intensive industrial production in the world economy, this time from China to other developing countries and regions.Inevitable (due to the aging population and the increase in wages) reduction in the number of workers in China will be offset by the industrialization of less developed countries (according to some estimates, the introduction of advanced agricultural technology would free up more than 1.5 bln people).
With the consolidation of its position, China aims to offer to the world community its own approaches to the solution of global problems of economic development that are largely based on the theoretical understanding of the experience of economic transformation in China [Borokh, 2016] In terms of geopolitical dimension, the key principle of China's proclaimed approach is to abandon the political demands in the course of implementation of joint projects at the international level.No less important aspect is the increasing role of developing countries in global economic governance both through the changing role in the already existing institutions (IMF, World Bank) and the creation of new structures (AIIB, NBI, the Foundation of the Silk Road).Most likely, such a course of events would lead to greater dependence of the world economy on the situation in China.
The "claim" of China that it "leads" globalization has become particularly noticeable against the background of a number of important victories of Western politicians representing the interests of the population and sectors of the economy dissatisfied with globalization, including the victory of D. Trump in the US presidential election and Great Britain's exit from the EU.If there is a turn to protectionism in the United States, which for decades has been the most important driver of globalization and free trade, it will benefit China that is ready to pick up the baton [Why China could lead…, 2016].

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE AND CONTENT OF "THE BELT AND ROAD" INITIATIVE
The unequivocal answer to the question of the spatial boundaries of the "The Belt and Road" strategy does not exist.Chinese authorities stress that the project expressed a desire to involve more than 100 countries and international organizations, and 30 of them have already signed relevant agreements [Xi calls for…, 2016].China welcomes the cooperation with all developing countries, including Central and South America.
In practice, the "Belt and Road" region is assumed, as a rule, to include Asian countries (often with Japan and the two Koreas), Central and Eastern Europe (and sometimes the entire Europe), and North Africa (sometimes the entire Africa).For example, such an approach is used in the work of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences.These scientists include in the "Belt and Road" 69 countries that account for 43 % of the land area (67.7 mln sq.km), 4.4 bln population, and 38.2 % of world GDP ($US 27.4 bln) [Dong Suocheng et al., 2016].At that, it is necessary to take into account the vast differences in economic weight of the countries that create the objective conditions for a much greater dependence of most of the "Belt" countries on China than China on any of them.
The "Belt and Road" concept has its domestic component in addition to the international one; the concept is considered as a tool of regional policy to reduce the gap between the prosperous coastal part and the rest of the regions.Regional authorities and agencies are using the historical, geographical, and institutional arguments to justify their key importance for foreign economic sphere of the entire nation and to raise additional funds for development [Zuenko, 2015] Chinese researchers have noted that in recent years, cautious attitude of host countries towards China has been growing.In response, the Chinese leadership in its declarations gradually shifts the emphasis from a sufficiently non-specific "mutual benefit" to a more understandable "for the benefit of the foreign partner." Most clearly this was expressed in the speech of President Xi Jinping at the workshop on the Silk Road in August 2016, where it was stated that "the creation of "Belt and Road" should be to the benefit of the citizens of these countries."[Xi Seeks to Address…, 2016].Even before this event, Chinese researchers have noted that one of the necessary accents of cooperation is the creation of the social base for joint projects support.

CONCERNS, EXPECTED POSITIVE EFFECTS, AND THE MAIN DIRECTIONS OF JOINT RESEARCH
The concerns of experts mainly relate to the possible China's export to foreign countries of excess and obsolete capacities of industries with a high on the environment, e.g., ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy, petrochemical, pulp and paper, cement, electricity based on coal, etc.The interest to SREB in a number of countries that significantly lag behind China in terms of per-capita GDP, foreign investment, and new jobs, may cause them to turn a blind eye to the deterioration of the natural environment.
In recent years, the Chinese government gives great importance to the environmental situation, directing major investments to the environmental sphere.According to some Western authors, Chinese companies may also become encouraged to increase the exploitation of natural resources and imports from the neighboring countries and to move polluting industries outside.Thus, the ban on industrial logging in the forests of China has created a greater demand for timber imports from South-East Asia, Russia, and other regions of the world, particularly from those where illegal harvesting is common.Analysis of satellite images of 2000-2014 [Kolosov et al., 2017] shows that even before the adoption of active conservation measures in China, logging in the Russian regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East were concentrated along the border, due to the massive exports of timber to China.According to WWF experts, half of it falls on illegal logging.Weak state control, along with the rapid growth of China's timber demand, leads to degradation of the most valuable forests and the loss of species [Russian-Chinese cooperation…, 2010].
The routes of the New Silk Road pass through areas traditionally specializing in sectors based on intensive use of natural resources (mining, distant-pasture cattle breeding).Newly designed and reconstructed highways cross the areas of settlement of indigenous ethnic groups whose way of life is closely linked to the traditional land-use which plays an important role in the preservation of natural and cultural diversity.It may be damaged as a result of the implementation of resourceintensive projects and the creation of large agricultural and livestock farms (agro-clusters), for example, industrial pig farms with several hundred thousand heads, the construction of which is radically changing the land tenure structure within a large radius around them.
Traditional culture and identity of small ethnic groups could also be threatened by the inflow of workers and specialists engaged in the construction of transport hubs and new enterprises, and spread of mass culture and cosmopolitan consumption patterns.
There are also concerns associated with the well-known "tunnel effect" when modern highways connect only large units, without giving any incentive to the development of sparsely populated transit areas and only accelerating the migration of their inhabitants to the big cities.Moreover, contributing to social stratification, economic growth does not necessarily cause an increase in the population's welfare.New projects should provide sustainable employment to the local population, add to the regional and local budgets (and not only to the state budget or the budget of the region in which the registered headquarters of private and public companies involved in investments are located).It is important to arrive at beneficial to all the parties involved proportional distribution of risks and benefits of the project and to avoid a situation where the environmental and social costs are geared towards one partner while the benefits are enjoyed by the other.
Other risks include potential conflicts caused by the unevenness of economic growth and its associated political dynamics in the countries of "Economic Belt" and their regions.
Significant differences in the level of economic development between the border regions Welfare of the population can be enhanced by overcoming the "continental curse," through the construction or reconstruction of the "Asia-Europe" transport axes, caused, in the words of the famous geographer L.A. Bezrukov, by the ultra-continental position of many regions of Siberia, Mongolia, Western China, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia, located at a distance of more than 2000 km from the oceans.L.A. Bezrukov proved that the low accessibility of these regions from ports significantly increases the cost of their exports, especially mineral commodities, often making them uncompetitive in the global market, preventing import, and directly affecting the standard of living of the population [Bezrukov, 2008].It can be expected that the construction of new transport corridors as a result of the "The Belt and Road" initiative will enhance the formation of linear systems of settlement led by the major cities.The process of migration of the population to the towns and villages along the main road that crosses the country from south to north currently has been clearly manifested in Mongolia, even prior to its reconstruction [Batbuyan Batjav, 2016].The linear nature of the resettlement reduces the average distance of transportation, as if it were bringing the cities closer [Kolosov, Treyvish, 2013].
Founding China's initiative solely on the development of a new mineral and raw material base and reinforcing agricultural specialization of the inland areas of North-Eastern Eurasia would be a mistake.The initiative should lead to restructuring of China's economy, its diversification, renewal of the technological basis, and an appreciable multiplier effect.Economic recovery and the strengthening of communication would soften sharp contrasts in wealth between the border regions of the "The Belt and Road" countries and promote solution to ethnic and territorial conflicts on the borders between member-countries of joint projects.
Due to the multi-dimensional nature of the initiative, the implementation of its projects should strengthen the integration processes at the regional and local levels (urban areas and agglomerations) and boost the crossborder cooperation.
Long-term prospects of the initiative and the possible fundamental effects of its implementation determine the high relevance of international cooperation to provide scientific and technical project support in order to avoid conflicts and to find mutual compromises and coordination of the interests of all parties involved and at different levels (individual states, regional authorities, private businesses, etc.).In our

CONCLUSIONS
The "Belt and Road" concept fits into the overall strategy of the further development of China and meets its objectives in many specific areas.In the economic sphere, it corresponds to the task of transformation of the economic growth model, helping to reduce excess capacity in a number of traditional industries through their export to other countries.In the diplomatic sphere, this concept is a "socially useful product" offered by China to the world community, which helps build its "soft power." Overall, this means a wider range of instruments and scope of China's economic diplomacy, especially within the framework of cooperation with developing and least developed countries all over the world in the South-South format.
China proposed the "New Silk Road" ("Belt and Road") that represents a multi-dimensional project aimed at the gradual transformation of the world economy and the country's place in the international division of labor.This is, in fact, the foreign component of the government's policy to modernize the country's economy.China intends to use the opportunities of globalization and foreign trade to solve its own social and economic problems; however, the "Belt and Road" provides the potential for development for all other participants, whose range is virtually unlimited.A symbolic metaphor of the "Silk Road" makes it possible to succinctly convey the general principles of the new policy to the foreign audience."Belt and Road" is an important part of a new stage of China's economic openness and export of Chinese capital.A charitable desire to improve the lives of the people along the ""Belt and Road" may represent Keynesianism and a new "Marshall Plan" of the world scale: the calculation that the increase in the aggregate demand in developing countries in conjunction with the free international trade, in the long-term, would mostly benefit the Chinese economy.
Russia's accession to the Chinese project takes place both through the intensification of the bilateral relations, as well as through the "pairing" with the creation of the EAEU.Russia should actively cooperate with China in the framework of its new foreign economic policy, put forward Russia's own initiatives aimed at realization of the export and transit potential of the country, and eliminating regional development imbalances.China's planned development of continental routes corresponds to the objective needs of modernization of transport infrastructure in Russia.Of course, today it is difficult to predict all the details of the interaction between the two countries in both the coordination of the EAEU and SREB programs and the implementation of specific projects.The initiated practical work is focused on a longterm perspective.In this connection, it is necessary to fully take into account that the gap of the absolute values of China's and Russia's GDPs in the coming years will increase: according to the IMF estimates, from 5.6:1 in 2014 to 7.8:1 by 2020 (when converted from yuan and rubles into dollars at the current market rate) and from 4.9:1 to 6.7:1 (in terms of the purchasing power of the national currencies).As outlined in the Joint Statement of Russia and China on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership and promoting mutually beneficial cooperation (May 8, 2015), in this particular situation, it is especially important to act always in the spirit of "strengthening equal cooperation and mutual trust."

GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 01 (10) 2017
al., 2015].The speech by China's President at the Boao Forum in March 2015 and the subsequent publication of the document "Vision and Action on the Joint Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century, " prepared jointly by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, have clarified many issues [Vision and Actions…, 2015].It became clear that this is a long-term project of global northeastern and eastern China via Manzhouli checkpoint and the Trans-Siberian Railway.The central route will be in the central and southern parts of China through the checkpoint Erenhot, Mongolian Railway, and the Trans-Siberian Railway.
Hao et al., 2016] the multiple aspects of the Chinese project, which includes a large number of industry-specific components, the transportation component has gained special significance in Russia and other post-Soviet countries.Apparently, this is due to deeply to increase the number of freight trains to 5000 per year and the overall share of the bilateral routes (now many only work in one direction).The plan includes the creation of three regular transport directions -eastern, central, and western.The eastern route will serve customers in China supports the increase of not only transport, but also the information connectivity in Eurasia [ChengHao et al., 2016].This refers to the development of With the growing demand for legumes, cotton, corn, wheat, rice, sugar beet, and other land-intensive (as opposed to labor-intensive)